Budget 2026: Key figures to track include fiscal deficit, capital expenditure, borrowing and debt roadmap & more related News Here

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present her record ninth consecutive Union Budget, with markets closely tracking headline numbers ranging from fiscal deficit and capital expenditure to borrowing and tax revenue estimates as India charts its course as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.Continuing the tradition of recent years, the Budget will be presented in a paperless format. Sitharaman had replaced the traditional leather briefcase with one wrapped in red cloth in her first budget in 2019 Ledger accountSymbolizes a symbolic change in presentation.Here are the key numbers and signals that investors, economists and policymakers will be keeping an eye on in the Union Budget for 2025-26 and beyond:

Fiscal deficit

As per PTI report, the fiscal deficit for the current financial year (FY26) is estimated at 4.4 per cent of GDP. Since the government has achieved its consolidation target of keeping the deficit below 4.5 per cent, the focus will shift to guidance for FY2017. The market expects the government to signal clarity on the medium-term debt reduction path as well as a deficit closer to 4 percent of GDP next year.

Capital expenditure

Capital expenditure remains the central pillar of the government’s development strategy. Capex for FY26 is pegged at Rs 11.2 lakh crore. In the upcoming Budget, the government is expected to continue to prioritize infrastructure outlay, with a potential 10-15 per cent increase that could take capital expenditure to over Rs 12 lakh crore, especially as private investment sentiment remains cautious.

loan roadmap

In her previous budget speech, the Finance Minister had said that the fiscal policy objective from 2026-27 would be to keep central government debt as a share of GDP at declining levels. Markets will be looking for a clear timeline when general government debt-to-GDP can move towards the 60 per cent target. General government debt was about 85 percent of GDP in 2024, including about 57 percent of central government debt.

lending program

Gross market borrowing for FY26 is estimated at Rs 14.80 lakh crore. The borrowing numbers announced in the Budget will be closely scrutinized as it gives an indication of the government’s funding needs, fiscal discipline and potential impact on bond yields.

tax revenue

Gross tax revenue for 2025-26 is estimated at Rs 42.70 lakh crore, showing an increase of 11 per cent over FY2015. This includes Rs 25.20 lakh crore from direct taxes—personal income tax and corporate tax—and Rs 17.5 lakh crore from indirect taxes like customs duty, excise duty and GST.

GST collection

Goods and Services Tax collections for FY26 are estimated to grow by 11 per cent to Rs 11.78 lakh crore. FY27 estimates will be keenly watched, especially as GST revenue growth is expected to accelerate after the rate rationalization measures implemented from September 2025.

nominal GDP growth

Nominal GDP growth for FY2026 was initially estimated at 10.1 per cent but has been revised down to around 8 per cent due to lower than expected inflation, while real GDP growth is pegged at 7.4 per cent by the National Statistics Office. The FY27 nominal GDP assumption – likely to be in the range of 10.5-11 per cent – ​​will provide clues on the government’s inflation and growth outlook.

spending priorities

Apart from the headline aggregate, the budget will also be scanned for allocations to key social and development schemes as well as spending on priority sectors such as health and education.Together, these data will shape expectations on fiscal discipline, growth pace and policy support as India navigates a complex global economic environment.