Price, relevance, conviction – Bitcoin is suffering all three.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency slipped below $76,000 in brief weekend trading, down nearly 40% from its 2025 peak and revisiting levels last seen following the “Liberation Day” tariff fallout.
What started as a sharp decline in October has turned into something much more corrosive: a selloff caused not by panic, but by an absence of buyers, momentum, and confidence.
Unlike the drop in October, there is no obvious spark, widespread liquidation or systemic shock – just a lack of demand, a lack of liquidity, and a token that is tied to broader markets. Bitcoin has failed to respond to geopolitical tensions, dollar weakness or risk-off rallies. Even during the violent fluctuations of gold and silver in recent weeks, no rotation was observed in crypto.
Bitcoin fell nearly 11% in January, marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline – the longest losing streak since 2018, during a decline that followed a surge in initial coin offerings in 2017.
“I don’t think we’ll see any new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2026,” said Paul Howard, director of market maker Vincent.
What’s even more shocking than this decline is the relative lack of optimism about it on social media. In a field known for relentless bravado and “numbers go up” memes, Bitcoin’s decline has been met with little praise or dip-buying fanfare.
All this comes despite a wave of regulatory wins and a surge in institutional investment from the Trump administration’s pro-crypto pivot. Many investors say optimism was at the forefront. Prices rose quickly – and then stopped.
Meanwhile, spot ETFs continue to fall, indicating weak confidence among mainstream buyers – many of whom are now in the water after buying at higher prices. Large institutional players such as digital asset treasuries have also eased their purchases after their own stock price bubbles burst last year, further reducing demand from the market top.
Bitcoin’s market depth, a measure of capital available to absorb large trades, remains down more than 30% from its October peak, according to Kaiko data. The last time such a drop in liquidity was in 2022 after the collapse of FTX.
Historical patterns provide little comfort. After the 2021 peak, Bitcoin took 28 months to recover. After the 2017 boom in initial coin offerings, it took almost three years. By those standards, the current recession may still be in its early innings.
“Looking at historical crypto exchange volume contractions, from the peak of 2017 through the winter of 2018-2019, we saw a 60% to 70% decline in volume across spot exchanges,” said Laurence Froussen, an analyst at Kaiko.
In contrast, a contraction of 30% to 40% more was seen in the fall of 2021-2023, Froussen said.
“I think we’re probably about 25% of the way to where we are in the current cycle,” he said. “Cyclically speaking, we typically see our worst declines around 50%.”
Froussen estimates that it could take six to nine months for a meaningful recovery to occur, with volumes likely to remain low during the later stages of recovery and re-accumulation.
Others see a more fundamental challenge: competition for capital.
Richard Hodges, founder of the Fero BTC Volatility Fund, said he warned large Bitcoin holders that patience will be required.
“I talk to a lot of Bitcoin whales and I tell them clearly they won’t see another all-time high for 1,000 days,” Hodges said.
He pointed to the resurgence of AI-linked stocks and precious metals, which has attracted both macro traders and momentum chasers.
“Bitcoin was news three years ago, not today,” Hodges said. “AI stocks are going to the moon. We saw the beginning of gold’s rally, then silver’s rally.”
