This is the online version of From the policy deska daily newsletter bringing you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
Ahead of this afternoon’s State of the Union address, Peter Nicholas delves into the economic dilemma facing President Donald Trump, while Steve Kornacki explains what the midterm environment is shaping up to be.
Programming note: Stay tuned for a special edition of the newsletter tonight, where we’ll recap and analyze key moments from Trump’s speech.
NBC News and NBC News NOW will air special coverage of the address starting at 9 pm ET. Follow along with our live blog for real-time updates and reactions.
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—Adam Wollner
The big question hanging over Trump’s State of the Union
Analysis by Peter Nicholas
Tonight’s State of the Union offers the President donald trump a large television audience and perhaps the best opportunity he will have before the midterm elections to show voters that yes, he understands that they feel pressured by high prices.
The question is: will he seize the moment?
Before the speech, Trump seemed upset that Democrats had gained ground because many Americans believe life is unaffordable. His argument is that he inherited high inflation from the Biden administration and deserves credit for revitalizing the economy.
“I’ve gained affordability,” he said in Georgia last week.
Americans don’t believe it. Polls show the extent to which the public has soured on his management of the economy, once a strong point. A new ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll showed that only 41% of adults approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared to 57% who disapproved.
Trump is much more inclined to blame joe biden and argue that he has already taken the American economy to dizzying heights than admit that he still has work to do on that front. His message often sounds like he has already solved a problem that, in the eyes of most Americans, still persists.
A nation that was once “dead” is now the “hottest” in the world, Trump likes to say. If that’s the message tonight, voters might remain unmoved.
“It is the American people who decide whether these issues matter, not politicians,” Newt Gingricha former Republican House speaker and Trump ally said in an interview.
What will we hear from Trump then? White House advisers suggested before the speech that Trump will acknowledge that times are tough for some Americans and that he has a plan to fix things.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt He told reporters this morning that Trump “I think will put forward a very ambitious agenda for the workers of this country to make America more affordable, prosperous and secure, and make the American dream more attainable.”
The speech that Trump can want give tonight is that the people’s difficulties are behind them. But more than 90 minutes of Trumpian self-praise may not suit the national mood. The speech that can need It’s a good thing for the Republican Party that the difficulties are real and must be addressed… now.
Gingrich, who ran for president in 2012, said Trump should say: “’We have a plan that will flood the market with goods and services and drive down costs and be dramatically less expensive than Biden’s.’ It’s not complicated.”
Trump’s speech comes amid challenging midterm environment for the Republican Party
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
It’s only been a year since his second term, but tonight could mark the last time the President donald trump delivers a State of the Union address to a Republican-controlled Congress.
Traditional indicators point to a very challenging climate for the Republican Party in this year’s midterm elections. In an average of recent, respected national polls, Trump’s job approval rating sits at 40%. That’s exactly where he was at this point in 2018, when his party took a midterm drubbing. And it’s more or less in line with where joe biden It was in 2022, where barack obama It was in 2014 and 2010, and where George W. Bush It was 2006. All of those presidents saw their parties lose control of at least one chamber of Congress in those midterm elections.
On what the public says are his top issues, Trump also fares poorly: In the poll average, 40% approve of his handling of the economy and 43% approve of how he has handled immigration and the border. It has also seen drops in support among key groups. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released this week shows that 30% of Hispanic voters and 29% of voters under 30 approve of his job performance. In their 2024 victory over Kamala HarrisTrump performed surprisingly well with both voting blocs.
Democrats have already shown momentum at the polls. In special House elections since Trump’s return to the White House, Democratic candidates have posted net gains of between 13 and 23 points compared to the 2024 presidential election. And in last November’s gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, Democrats won landslide victories.
Is there any comfort in all this for Trump and the Republican Party? Potentially some.
Democratic success in the special election is likely due primarily to an imbalance in the motivation of each party’s base, with Democratic voters eager to take advantage of any opportunity to express their opposition to Trump. The imbalance matters in low-voltage special elections, but its effect will be muted in November, when interest and turnout will be much higher.
The battleground for the House is also shrinking thanks to polarization and partisan gerrymandering. Midway through Trump’s first term in 2018, Republicans were defending a total of 48 seats from districts that had voted against Trump in 2016 or that Trump had won by less than 7.5 points. This year, they only have 23 seats that fall into that category. Interestingly, Republicans can take some inspiration from Biden and Democrats: In 2022, although Biden had an approval rating on par with Trump’s current one, Democrats only lost nine House seats.
But of course, even nine seats is more than the GOP can afford to lose in 2026. A net change of just three is all Democrats need this year to win control of the House and to ensure that when Trump arrives at the chamber for next year’s State of the Union, he will be greeted by a Democratic speaker.
What else to know before tonight’s speech:
- Trump’s guests will include Erika Kirkconservative activist’s widow charlie kirkand the parents of Sara Beckstromthe 20-year-old National Guard member who was shot and killed in Washington, D.C., last year. Members of the United States men’s hockey team are also expected to attend the speech after visiting the White House this afternoon.
- More than a dozen House Democrats have invited Jeffrey Epstein survivors to be their guests.
- For the official Democratic response, Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger plans to focus on affordability, immigration and the “chaos” caused by the Trump administration.
📊Poll: How long will Trump’s speech last?
Tonight will be Trump’s sixth State of the Union speech/address to a joint session of Congress. Courtesy of NBC News Monica AlbaThis is how long each of those speeches lasted:
2025: 1 hour, 40 minutes
2020: 1 hour, 18 minutes
2019: 1 hour, 22 minutes
2018: 1 hour, 20 minutes
2017: 1 hour
Trump said yesterday: “It’s going to be a long speech, because we have a lot to talk about.”
With this in mind, how long do you think Trump will speak this time? Vote in our reader poll:
🗞️ Other featured news today
- 💲 Tariff talk: Trump’s reworked global tariffs began today at a rate of 10%, even though he said over the weekend they would start at 15%. Read more →
- 🇺🇦 Ukraine Update: ukrainian president Volodymyr ZelenskyRussia’s public frustration is growing as Russia’s war against its country enters its fifth year. Read more →
- 🇮🇷 Iran Update: Although weakened and facing an internal crisis, Iran’s regime still has substantial firepower that could inflict damage on U.S. interests and allies in the region, disrupt the global economy, and trigger a protracted conflict in response to a U.S. military strike. Read more →
- 🛑 Thinking about it: Jeanine PirroTrump’s office decided to stop pursuing the case against six Democratic lawmakers who urged service members in a video not to follow illegal orders. Read more →
- 🛣️ On the ground: More than a year after Trump defeated the traditionally Democratic Rio Grande Valley, his deportation agenda is directly affecting the region’s workforce. Read more →
That’s all from the Politics Department for now. Today’s newsletter was prepared by Adam Wollner and Owen Auston-Babcock.
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