“If you want to change the government, don’t look for a leader. Become the leader,” says actor Vijay in his 2018 hit film ‘Sarkar’. Eight years later, politician Vijay finally became leader and formed his sarkar (government) last week. To do so, Vijay had to rely on last-minute support from DMK allies, the same party he had called a “political enemy”. In essence, with such a fragile majority in the Tamil Nadu assembly, Vijay’s survival sarkar It may depend on Stalin’s liking. But Vijay can take solace in the rumors in the AIADMK after a faction extended support to his TVK.
The rapid developments in Tamil Nadu have raised an important question. Will the Vijay government be able to remain stable for five years? The answer lies in how he managed to gather the slim majority. Vijay’s TVK now has the support of 120 MLAs in the assembly, just above the majority mark of 118.
VIJAY’S FRAGILE MAJORITY
Fundamentally, the TVK, with 107 MLAs, depends on the crutches of the Congress (5 MLAs), VCK (2), IUML (2) and the Left (4). Except for the Congress, which severed its ties with the DMK, the others still swear allegiance to Stalin.
Interestingly, the VCK, IUML and the Left have provided external support to the TVK. The Left parties even went so far as to say that they would continue to work with Stalin’s DMK to safeguard the interests of Tamil Nadu.
Essentially, Vijay’s TVK can really count on the support of all five Congress MLAs. That leaves only 112 MLAs assured.
This justifies the argument that Stalin holds the key to a stable TVK government as the VCK, IUML and the Left parties have not abandoned the DMK completely.
“For now, Stalin indirectly remains in the driving seat because almost all the parties supporting Vijay’s TVK are made up of his former allies. He effectively has the remote control of the new government and would know exactly when to press the right buttons,” political commentator Arvind P tweeted.
While Vijay may be a political novice, he is aware of the tightrope he must walk. That’s probably why the first visit after his swearing-in ceremony was to Stalin’s residence on Monday.
This was probably the first time in the history of Tamil Nadu that an incumbent visited the outgoing chief minister after assuming office. The move was seen as a testament to Vijay’s political maturity.
“Ironically, one of the biggest contributors to Vijay’s rise was not his supporters, nor the coalition’s arithmetic, but Stalin’s calculated restraint,” a journalist tweeted.
For now, Stalin will watch and scrutinize Vijay’s every move. The Jana Nayagan star promised cash subsidies, made big claims about women’s safety and running a corruption-free government. He also launched a strong attack on the previous DMK regime over Tamil Nadu’s alleged debt burden of Rs 10 lakh crore.
As a shrewd politician, Stalin knows very well that not allowing Vijay to form the government could have been counterproductive. That is probably why the rumor of arch-rivals DMK and AIADMK joining hands remained a rumour.
Such an alliance of convenience would have sent a wrong message to the cadres and people of Tamil Nadu at large. It would have only generated a wave of sympathy for Vijay and strengthened his position in the event of a re-election.
Furthermore, timing is crucial. A DMK-AIADMK government would have given a second wind to Edappadi Palaniswami (EPS), whose shares are already falling after AIADMK’s poor performances. Stalin was well aware that it would be a matter of time before the AIADMK imploded.
AIADMK RIFT OFFERS BACKUP PLAN TO VIJAY
And it made it implode. On Tuesday, after days of speculation and tourism politics, an AIADMK faction led by senior MLAs SP Velumani and Shanmugam announced its support for the TVK government. The immediate trigger, Shanmugam said, was EPS trying to align itself with the DMK.
Around 30 of the 47 AIADMK MLAs are believed to be aligned with the anti-EPS bloc.
“The mandate is for Vijay to become the Chief Minister. We extend our support to the TVK government,” Shanmugam said in an explosive press conference.
However, Shanmugam stressed that he had no intention of splitting the AIADMK. He also claimed that he was no longer allied with the BJP.
“The AIADMK is not allied with any party and a new alliance needs to be formed. We are not part of any alliance except TVK,” Shanmugam said.
Now, with the support of this AIADMK faction, Vijay’s TVK has the backing of 150 MLAs in the assembly. The exact number, however, will be known during Wednesday’s soil test.
The thing to note here is that Shanmugam has said that he will not split the AIADMK. A split would have led to the application of the anti-defection law.
The Shanmugam faction needs the support of at least 32 MLAs to avoid disqualification under the anti-defection law.
The division within the party was visible on Tuesday when AIADMK MLAs arrived at two separate camps for the assembly session.
Vijay, however, will not care about the developments in the AIADMK. It will serve as TVK’s backup in case Stalin decides to pull the government’s strings through DMK allies.
But Vijay surviving on the crutches of DMK allies and an AIADMK faction may not be a good long-term prospect. After all, he campaigned during the elections as a true third alternative to the Dravidian giants.
For now, the odds seem to be stacked against Vijay. But he has a backup ready.
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