India’s smartphone market has recorded its weakest quarterly performance in recent years. Pressure was felt in the first quarter of this year as shipments slowed due to lower demand, as well as geopolitical uncertainties that led to a sharp increase in memory and storage prices. Analysts estimate the decline to be between 2% and 5% of the approximately 35 million unit shipment spread. Premium phones offer a ray of hope for phone makers in terms of margins and aspiration-driven volumes, in a market scenario where consumers are mostly taking a wait-and-watch approach to discretionary purchases.
For India in particular, speculation has long suggested that Apple will ramp up manufacturing of iPhones in India for export to other markets, to mitigate risks from US and China trade tensions. The coming days will bring new signals for India on whether the current projection that Apple will collect 28% of global iPhone shipments here by 2026 still holds true. The company’s CEO Tim Cook is visiting China with US President Donald Trump along with other tech executives including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg and Tesla’s Elon Musk.
Cybermedia Research’s latest India Mobile Handset Market Review report said shipments of affordable phones declined by 46% and the value for money segment declined by 12%, while premium phones grew by 25% during this period. “India’s smartphone market entered 2026 under pronounced cost pressure, driven primarily by ongoing memory supply constraints. The sharp rise in DRAM and NAND prices has increased device costs, forcing brands to realign pricing across segments,” says Maneka Kumari, Senior Analyst – Industry Intelligence Group (IIG), Cybermedia Research (CMR).
“At the same time, the market is undergoing a structural shift. Consumers are becoming more thoughtful in their purchasing decisions, preferring real value rather than frequent upgrades,” she adds. For Samsung, the Galaxy S26 Ultra holds the fort for the brand’s premium positioning, while Apple, OnePlus and Xiaomi have benefited from this momentum.
Sandeep Singh Arora, chief business officer, Xiaomi India, told HT, “We are starting to see the flywheel working again and demand returning. As prices rise across the industry, some customers will wait and see. But we are also seeing the market starting to stabilize as businesses and consumers adapt. There are some short-term hiccups in some parts of the chain.”
Smartphone brands are reporting strong sales of their more expensive phones, in their latest earnings calls. Apple posted its best-ever March quarter with revenue of $111.2 billion. “Iphones achieved a revenue record in the March quarter due to extraordinary demand for the iPhone 17 lineup,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said during the call.
Due to the higher average selling price and pace with sales of the latest flagship phones, Samsung also recorded an all-time high quarterly revenue of KRW 133.9 trillion (South Korean won; that would be about $90 billion). Samsung’s figures also include an all-time high of quarterly revenue and operating profit for its memory business, where the company holds a global leadership position.
“The Device Experience (DX) division recorded 19% QoQ sales growth, supported by the launch of new flagship smartphones. Despite higher cost pressures, the division expanded sales of higher value-added products across businesses to maintain profitability,” the company said in a statement. The DX division includes smartphones as well as TV, home appliances and mobile devices businesses.
For OnePlus, the flagship OnePlus 15 and OnePlus 15R phones contribute 48% of volume, according to CMR numbers, which is more than the more affordable Nord 5 and Nord CE5 (they combined for about 39% share). For Apple, the trend of selling the latest generation and previous generation phones at a lower price continues to be successful. The CMR report also said that Apple reached 9% shipment share in Q1 2026, with the iPhone 16 series contributing 53% volume, while the current generation iPhone 17 series recorded a 28% share.
This, he says, is “a healthy upgrade cycle that validates the premium segment’s relative insulation from memory-driven pricing stress”.
Global trends are a signal
Smart Analytics Global (SAG) suggests in its latest Smartphone 360 tracking report that the premiumization phase in the smartphone market defines a space that has “increasingly diverged from shipment performance and shifted toward materially higher priced devices,” says Linda Sui, founder and principal analyst at Smart Analytics Global (SAG).
Their reported numbers show that Apple, Samsung, and Xiaomi lead in terms of revenue share for Q1 2026 worldwide. While Apple’s latest generation iPhone 17 and iPhone 17 Pro phones have been successful, Samsung has also achieved generational success with the Galaxy S26 portfolio, while Xiaomi’s partnership with German camera giant Leica has given not only the Xiaomi 17 Ultra and 17 flagships, but also a tech flex called the Xiaomi-powered Huawei Leitzphone, which is being sold in some countries.
It also marked the 100th anniversary of Leica, and underlined the multi-year partnership between the camera giant and the phone maker.
According to the latest International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, global smartphone shipments declined 2.9% year-on-year to 293.8 million units in 1Q26, breaking a 10-quarter growth streak. Nabila Popal, senior research director at Worldwide Consumer Devices, says that although phone makers are responding with “tighter cost controls, less marketing and channel support, and increased use of de-spacing strategies – such measures also limit growth”.
Xiaomi’s strategy has been to reduce shipments of older models in the face of component shortages and high bills of materials, to avoid massive price increases on existing phones.
He noted that Samsung regained the top spot in the first quarter of 2026, primarily due to strong demand for the new Galaxy S26 Ultra, with worldwide shipments increasing by 2.95% year-on-year. Apple follows suit due to the strong sales performance of the iPhone 17 series and some key global market signals for the year – Apple saw significant growth in China, up 30%, leading to a 4.4% YOY global shipment increase.
It is believed that the premiumization trend will continue even as memory prices are expected to stabilize through the second half of 2027.
