Listening to Disney experts, their message is clear: The Mandalorian and Grogu will delight the public and make money, wet farrik.
The latest estimate for the film’s worldwide box office over the four-day weekend is between $160 million and $170 million or more, up slightly from the initial tracking a few weeks ago, with The Mandalorian It is expected to exceed the 2018 global goal of $148 million. Solo: A Star Wars Story. Domestically, it could end up with a range of between $95 million and $100 million over the four days, less than OnlyThe four-day figure of $103 million during the 2018 Memorial Day window. In other words, there may be apocalyptic headlines about “the worst ever opening for a Disney Star Wars movie” on Sunday and Monday.
The film was not expensive by Star Wars standards: it has the lowest production budget of any previous title since Disney acquired Lucasfilm. But it wasn’t cheap either: $165 million before a global advertising campaign of at least $100 million, probably more. Those close to Disney’s decision-making confirm it Jon Favreau’s film needs to raise between $500 and $600 million worldwide to achieve positive results. Only peaked at just $393 million globally, but command It already has much better audience ratings that combat very mixed reviews, with critics giving it a 64 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes. He mandalorianThe Rotten Tomatoes audience score is currently an optimistic 88 percent.
The Memorial Day campaign is showing particular strength among moviegoers under 13 and men over 55, a potentially potent combination that likely reflects the film’s appeal to families, particularly boys who like Baby Yoda along with boomers who like Clint Eastwood’s character in Pedro Pascal’s space. (PG titles that look like family photographs have become the box office story of 2026; they also enjoy incredible retention.) command grossed $12 million in Thursday previews, even less than Onlybut it was on par with Avatar: Fire and Ash and Ave Maria Project.
What the box office math ignores is the film’s rising tide effect for the studio. The Disney+ mandalorian The series inspired more than $1 billion in merchandise sales, and the Star Wars franchise as a whole generates approximately $1 billion a year. The brand’s most popular toy in 2021 and 2022 was Grogu. So the studio expects more Baby Yodas and groups of Anzellans to fly off the shelves. The film is also expected to have a positive impact on the parks, premium VOD and Disney+.
“The impact it will have on Disney+ is vitally important to us,” says a Disney executive. “Ultimately, not only could you end up on the service and get tens of millions of hours of viewing, but it will also have an impact on mandalorian seasons one to three. And what we are also discovering is that it is already helping not only He mandalorianbut the entire Star Wars catalog.”
Of course, one would expect any new Star Wars movie, particularly the first in seven years, to increase viewership for other Star Wars titles.
The biggest concern from orbit is this: Even among those who like the new movie, the consensus seems to be that it’s simply goodIt’s not your typical Star Wars-level opera. excellent. The last film in the franchise, the one from 2019. The Rise of Skywalkerwas derided by critics and fans, though it still managed to surpass the billion-dollar mark worldwide (people wanted to see how the story of the Skywalker saga concluded, but were decidedly unimpressed with the result). And before that came Only.
And then there were those television shows, ranging from the most notable (Andorthe first two seasons of The Mandalorian) to panoramic (The Boba Fett book, The acolyte, Obi Wan Kenobi).
As we’ve seen with Marvel, one film can’t tarnish a brand, but several titles in a row that are widely seen as unworthy can become a drag on a franchise, as former Disney boss Bob Iger himself has admitted (“a little too much, too quickly”).
“[The Mandalorian] “It’s actually largely meeting our ‘average’ expectations,” said one exhibitor. “No one ever thought this would be a massive, colossal success, especially once their poor piss [trailers] launched. The fan response so far seems like the consequence of making Star Wars unspecial and forcing it into an endless IP factory. They were right to take a lot of time off after the The Rise of Skywalkerbut they spent that time making seven live-action shows, only one of which was consistently great.”
Another prominent speaker thinks differently. “This movie could appeal to families in a big way, so it could gross close to $100 million domestically,” the person said.
Another message from within Disney: the next Star Wars movie – 2027 Star Wars: Starfighter – is much more of a real test, since command is a Disney+ series that jumped from the small screen to the big screen. While this may seem like a classic goaltending move, at least one rival executive agrees: “It’s a mandalorian movie, with very few new Star Wars characters. “It’s not a Star Wars movie.”
Who in the study deserves credit or blame? The Mandalorian and grogu It can be framed in different ways: The project was greenlit under former Lucasfilm boss Kathleen Kennedy. However, it is co-written by the studio’s new co-head Dave Filoni, who, along with co-writer and director Favreau, were the architects behind several of the Disney+ shows (excluding Andor).
Sources say Disney leaders, including Entertainment Studios president Alan Bergman, have accepted that there will always be a core group of fans who will never be happy with any title, whether it’s Star Wars, Marvel, or even Pixar’s next one. toy story 5which many expect will easily make a billion dollars. These sources say that Bergman’s mission is to “make entertaining films.”
And if some don’t feel like it The Mandalorian fulfill that mission, there is always starfighter (also greenlit under Kennedy). Disney had to thank its lucky stars for casting Ryan Gosling as its lead after another Gosling movie in space. Ave Maria Projectbecame a critical, box office and pop culture phenomenon this year.
“We have finished shooting starfighter and now it’s being edited,” says the Disney source. “We definitely have a plan for what we’re going to do next with the franchise after that. We’re knee-deep in it. “This has been a plan in the works for a while.”
One speaker agrees that starfighter It will represent, as they say, a new hope for the study.
“Ryan Gosling starred in the most crowd-pleasing movie in years and will lead what appears to be Star Wars: Top Gun“the speaker joked. “So there’s a reason to feel positive. Lucasfilm can’t screw that up.”
