The “doomsday scenario” for the future of Chicago’s transit system is coming sharply into focus: A $770 million budget deficit threatens to cost thousands of jobs, widespread service cuts and leave a hole in the local economy if a financial solution is not found by the spring.
That’s the picture in a report released Friday by the Regional Transportation Authority, which oversees the finances of the region’s bus and rail agencies. The report outlines the serious impacts that failure to close the gap could have on the system and the region. The General Assembly needs to act by the end of the legislative session in May to avert a crisis, the authority said.
The Chicago Transit Authority is expected to be the first agency in the region to deal with a fiscal crisis. The report estimates that at least four of the city’s eight rapid transit lines are likely to see service cuts. Expected cuts to bus lines could take the CTA from one of the largest transit systems in the country to a system with fewer bus routes than giant Kansas City.
“This is not just a transit crisis – it’s a regional emergency,” RTA Executive Director Leanne Redden said in the report. “If the General Assembly does not act this spring, thousands of Illinoisans in 2026 will have no way to get to work, school or medical appointments and will remain uncertain about their transit services for years into the future.”
Chicago’s problems are part of a growing financial crisis that is plaguing urban transit systems across the country. Agencies in the largest cities are currently grappling with huge budget deficits as they grapple with the end of pandemic aid from the federal government and also face threats from President Donald Trump to withhold funding from major transit infrastructure projects.
Taking into account the additional traffic, reduced mobility and job losses, the six Chicago area counties could suffer an economic loss of up to $2.6 billion annually, according to the RTA, which estimates that approximately 3,000 transit workers will be laid off.
To avert the looming crisis, officials have previously sought $1.5 billion in additional annual funding from state and local sources. That plan, which includes a proposed 10% fare increase, is designed to prevent cuts and additional payments to current services.
RTA estimates that without further action, the city’s commuter rail system, Metra, would be required to end service to the electric Blue Island Branch and the bus agency, Pace, would be required to discontinue its weekend service entirely.
“The momentum we have built to build a more responsive and equitable transit system – one that supports economic growth and connects people to jobs and opportunity – will be halted, setting us back years,” said Melinda Metzger, executive director of Pace.
RTA estimates that ridership across the system will decline by 90 million trips in the first year alone, reducing fare revenues and exacerbating funding challenges in the years to come.
RTA Board Chairman Kirk Dillard said, “Public transit is an economic necessity. If these cuts occur, Illinois’ entire economy will suffer.”
Top photo: The Chicago Transit Authority is expected to be the first agency in the region to deal with the fiscal crisis.
Copyright 2026 Bloomberg.
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