| F&O Series | Returns (Points) |
| March 2026 | -3093 |
| February 2026 | 249 |
| January 2026 | -763 |
| December 2025 | 54 |
| November 2025 | -51 |
| October 2025 | 1,325 |
Historically, the April series has been strong for the Nifty, with gains seen in four of the last five years.
In fact, after the 26% decline that the Nifty experienced during the onset month of Covid-19 in March 2020, the index had seen a 14% rally in April.
| April series year | Returns (Points) | Profitability (%) |
| 2021 | 570 | 4 |
| 2022 | -220 | -1.3 |
| 2023 | 834 | 4.9 |
| 2024 | 243 | 1.1 |
| 2025 | 655 | 2.8 |
Nifty reinvestments have been higher this time, ahead of the April series. At 77.7%, the figure is the highest so far this year and higher than the three-month average of 70.4%.
| Series | Rollovers (%) |
| April | 77.7 |
| March | 68.2 |
| February | 70.7 |
| January | 72.3 |
The Nifty Open Interest at the start of the series is also the highest in 2026 so far, surpassing 2 crore shares.
| Month | Nifty open interest |
| April | 2.09 crores |
| March | 1.34 crore |
| February | 1.62 crores |
| January | 1.4 crores |
FIIs remain net short in index futures ahead of the new series. However, the number of net long positions is higher than that of the last three months, although it remains at average levels.
| Month | FII Longs in futures |
| April | 15% |
| March | 14% |
| February | 12% |
| January | 9% |
Although history is in favor of the bulls entering the April series, the biggest trigger for any form of reversal from near 52-week lows will be a de-escalation in the US-Iran war and a subsequent drop in oil and other commodity prices.
The Reserve Bank of India’s next policy statement will come on April 8, the first after the start of the war in West Asia. Commentary on the currency from the central bank will also be key, after it fell to record lows on Monday.
Foreign investors continue to sell at record levels in Indian markets and their flows will also be key to market sentiment this month.
Had it not been for the war, the biggest trigger for markets would have been the start of the fourth quarter earnings season and updates from companies about the road ahead. That will start today with March auto sales reports and other companies releasing trading updates for the quarter.
