Developments in the ongoing US-Iran talks this week are expected to provide cues to gold and silver, with analysts predicting a largely stable trend in gold prices, while silver may continue to outperform amid geopolitical tensions and higher crude oil prices.Investors are also likely to keep an eye on a range of United States economic indicators, including GDP data, housing numbers, consumer confidence figures and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation prints, as markets look for signals on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.“Gold price movement next week looks sideways while silver still looks positive as the focus will again be on peace talks between the US and Iran to end the war,” said Pranav Mer, Vice President, Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd., EBG.Due to Bakrid, there will be less trading activity in domestic commodity futures markets on Thursday morning.On MCX, gold futures closed at Rs 1.58 lakh per 10 gram after marginal gains last week, while silver futures closed lower at Rs 2.71 lakh per kg.“Gold traded in a range-bound manner last week, closing at Rs 1,58,670 per 10 gram with a marginal gain of around 0.40% on MCX,” said Jatin Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity & Currency, LKP Securities.He said crude oil prices saw strong profit-booking during the week and declined about 7% from recent highs, reducing concerns about inflationary pressures globally.“At the same time, rupee recovered from weak levels of 97 against the US dollar to near 95.70, keeping the upside in domestic gold prices limited despite stable international bullion trends,” Trivedi said.In international trading, Comex gold futures fell 1% on the week to $4,523.2 an ounce. Silver futures also weakened, slipping nearly 2% to $76.20 an ounce.“Gold prices remained in a tight range over the past few sessions, but turned marginally lower towards the end of the week. Prices were stable amid a lack of new direction in the market – be it the economy front or the US-Iran war front,” Mer said.According to analysts, the market remains in an uptrend due to uncertainty over the geopolitical situation, especially the frequent changes in statements from both Washington and Tehran.On Sunday, US President Donald Trump said a deal between the US and Iran aimed at reducing tensions in the Gulf region and reopening the Strait of Hormuz was close to being finalized.Posting on Truth Social, Trump said the deal has been “extensively negotiated” and only final formalities remain.However, Iranian media refuted Trump’s comments regarding the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, stating that Tehran would retain control of the key waterway.Analysts said the conflicting positions of both the sides are likely to keep bullion prices sensitive to any fresh headlines emerging from the region.Meanwhile, market participants are also expected to keep an eye on comments from Federal Reserve officials after he formally succeeded Kevin Wersch as the head of the US central bank on Friday amid geopolitical tensions, market volatility and persistent inflation pressures.
