The Cardinals have missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, suffering losing seasons in two of those years. After losing 84 games last year, they traded veterans Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado and Sonny Gray. They now have the second-youngest lineup and the fourth-youngest pitching staff, and they’re off to a great start, winning 11 of their last 16.
Kansas City Royals (19-25) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (25-18) at Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Royals: 4.11 runs scored/game (25th in MLB), 4.57 runs allowed/game (19th)
Cardinals: 4.63 runs scored/game (ninth), 4.58 runs allowed/game (20th)
By most offensive metrics, the Cardinals are nearly identical to the Royals, hitting .240/.321/.390 as a team, but have scored half a run more per game. JJ Wetherholt is a favorite for Rookie of the Year, although he’s hitting just .213/.327/.277 this month. Not only has he been an offensive star, but he is among the best defensive players, per Outs Above Average.
After years of disappointment, former first-round pick Jordan Walker has taken a step forward and ranks seventh in baseball with a wRC+ of 166. Shortstop Masyn Winn is hitting .343/.400/.457 against lefties. Left-hander Victor Scott II is hitting just .125 in 85 plate appearances against righties.
Michael Wacha starts the first game for the Royals. He has never lost to the team that drafted him in the first round in 2012, going 4-0 with a 2.76 ERA in five career starts against the Cardinals. The Cardinals signed Dustin May last winter, and after two rough starts to start the year, he has a 2.55 ERA in his last six starts. Opponents are hitting .302 against his 97 mph fastball, but he has a 31.4 percent whiff rate with his sweeper.
Noah Cameron has allowed 20 runs in 25 innings over his last five starts. Kyle Leahy made 61 relief appearances for the Cardinals last year, posting a 3.07 ERA. He pitched five scoreless innings, allowing only two hits, but walked four against the Padres in his last start.
Andre Pallante had a 5.31 ERA last year in 31 starts, fourth-best among qualified starters. He relies heavily on a sinker/slider/curveball combination that helps him achieve a 55.7 percent ground ball rate. Vinnie Pasquantino is just 1-for-11 against him in career matchups.
The Cardinals’ bullpen has a 4.70 ERA, fifth-worst in baseball. Riley O’Brien made a career-high 31 appearances last year at age 30, and now leads the National League with 13 saves, although he has blown three saves. He throws a fastball that sinks hard and generates a 61 percent ground ball rate. Kansas City native Ryne Stanek joins the Cardinals bullpen with a 98 mph fastball. JoJo Romero has a reverse split, with the lefty hitting .233/.303/.433 against him.
The Cardinals have a young, hungry team with a lot to prove, and Busch Stadium is always a tough place to play. The Cardinals have been surprisingly mediocre at home (they’ve split their first 20 games there), but the Royals have been a terrible team on the road. The Royals will have to prove they can win outside of Kauffman Stadium and stop the bleeding after a terrible sweep in Chicago.