Griffin Wong previews tonight’s game between the LA Clippers and the Denver Nuggets with his bets supporting the favorite players.
During the 2025 playoffs, the Denver Nuggets eliminated the LA Clippers in seven games, falling in an uncompetitive Game 7 in which each of the Nuggets’ starters and sixth man Russell Westbrook scored at least 15 points. The teams will meet for the second time this season tonight at Ball Arena, with kickoff scheduled for 9 p.m. ET.
For most of the day on Friday, it looked like the Clippers would avoid a direct playoff rematch, with three-time MVP Nikola Jokić scheduled to remain out of Denver. However, while Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Cameron Johnson (knee) and Christian Braun (ankle) remain out, Jokić is ready to return (although officially listed as questionable). The biggest injury question for Los Angeles is Kawhi Leonard (knee), who is questionable, but Leonard played Tuesday night against the Utah Jazz and was effective, so it would be a surprise if he didn’t play.
The Clippers They are favorites by 1.5 points (-125 on Moneyline) for tonight’s game, with the point total set at 217.5. The Nuggets are +105 Moneyline. Below I laid out my three-player prop bets, starting with Jokić.
Nikola Jokić U22.5 points (-112)
It’s always a risky proposition to fade Jokić, whose scoring is often limited by his offensive aggression rather than any defensive scheme. However, he will no doubt be on a pretty heavy minutes restriction as he recovers from the knee hyperextension that cost him a month of action, and may even come off the bench behind Jonas Valančiūnas, who was acquired primarily to keep the team afloat in minutes without Jokić. Sure, the last time he faced Los Angeles, he put up a 55-point, 12-rebound masterpiece in just 33 minutes, but he also had a couple of games this season where he attempted 10 or fewer shots.
The Clippers are a tough matchup, given that they are the hottest team in the league. Since December 20, Los Angeles is 16-3 with the best net rating in the league, ranking second in offense and sixth in defense. The Clippers’ rim protection has been an issue for much of the season, but throughout their hot streak, they have allowed the ninth-lowest field goal percentage within five feet, an area where more than a third of Jokić’s attempts land. Ivica Zubac has done as good a job as any individual defender against Jokić, limiting him to 32 of 72 (44.4%) in the teams’ first-round series last season.
Kawhi Leonard 3+ triples scored (-106)
Despite injuring his knee and missing Los Angeles’ three-game trip to the East Coast, Leonard’s MVP-level form has not diminished. The Clippers’ miserable start to the season and the fact that he’s missed 13 games will likely prevent him from getting a major MVP push when the awards are finally voted on, but he can hold his own against even a healthy Jokić on any given night: Over his last 16 games, he’s averaged 31.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game with shooting splits of 51-43-92, making at least three 3-pointers in 12 of them.
Denver should be a little better defensively tonight with Jokić back, as despite not being a dominant individual defender, his size, IQ, and defensive rebounding have resulted in his teams generally being of similar or better quality with him on the floor. However, Leonard’s primary defender during last season’s playoffs, Gordon, will also be absent, and between Gordon’s initial injury on Nov. 21 and Jokić’s on Dec. 29, the Nuggets allowed the sixth-most catch-and-shoot 3-pointers. Leonard has taken 43.7% of those shots this season.
Jamal Murray 7+ assists (-120)
Murray has certainly taken a step forward in Jokić’s absence, averaging 27.8 points and 8.3 assists per game since his co-star went down, and is a virtual guarantee of being named to his first career All-Star team when reserves are announced on Sunday. In that span, he ranks 11th in touches, second in time of possession and seventh in potential assists among the 87 players who have appeared in at least 30 minutes per game.
Some of that will likely go away with Jokić back, but even before Jokić’s injury, Murray still ranked 13th in touches, seventh in time of possession, and 13th in potential assists, averaging 7.0 dimes per game. I’m sure Murray will adjust perfectly to throwing passes to the league’s best tough-shot taker (Jokić leads the league in field goal percentage over expectations by a larger margin than that between second-place Luka Dončić and 42nd-place Nikola Vučević). Los Angeles’ defense is good, allowing the sixth-fewest assists per game during its hot streak, but the Jokić-Murray two-man game is better.
