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Fear of oil shock is over, India can grow above 8%: Neelkanth Mishra & more related News Here

Fear of oil shock is over, India can grow above 8%: Neelkanth Mishra

According to Neelkanth Mishra, the newly appointed Executive Director for India at the World Bank, India’s economic growth remains resilient and concerns that higher crude oil prices could significantly derail the economy are overstated.In an interview with ANI, Mishra said India is better placed than many other energy-importing economies to absorb higher oil prices without causing any major damage to growth.Mishra, who is also a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, said India’s economy grew 7.1% in fiscal 2015 despite fiscal and monetary tightening.“If our growth rate was 7.1% despite fiscal and monetary tightening, it means that without it, growth would have been higher,” he said.According to Mishra, the combination of improving credit growth and a less restrictive fiscal stance suggests the economy was expanding at an annual pace of more than 8% by February-March 2026.He pointed to indicators such as 29% year-on-year growth in car sales in May, strong mall footfall and sales, and high single-digit growth in cement demand as evidence of underlying economic strength.“You cannot build inventory of cement…whatever is being purchased is being consumed,” he said.Mishra argued that India’s exposure to oil shocks is less than often portrayed because domestic oil marketing companies also benefit from refining operations.Explaining the dynamics, he said that while higher crude prices drive up costs, strong refining margins partially offset the impact.With crude oil currently trading around $94-95 per barrel and diesel refining margins low, Mishra said, “India does not need to raise fuel prices further.”He said concerns about large implicit fuel subsidies are misplaced.“The feared implicit subsidy of Rs 20-30 per liter is not needed; a discount of Rs 8 per liter is sufficient as oil prices have come down due to inventory release by China and the US,” he said.Mishra estimated that oil at $100 a barrel would create about a 2% drag on growth, but said the impact would not be enough to derail the economy.He compared this effect to an aircraft facing adverse conditions.At the same time, he argued that if oil prices move toward the $80 per barrel level indicated by futures markets, support measures such as fertilizer price caps may not be needed until March 2027.According to Mishra, if crude oil prices soften, the economy can pick up again.Acknowledging that energy prices remain a risk, he said India’s refining surplus, strong domestic demand and easing of fiscal and monetary constraints will help growth remain in the 7.5-8% range, even if crude oil prices remain high.“The bigger challenge,” he said, “is to manage the narrative until the data proves resilience.”

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