Technically, MCX Gold remains in a broad bullish trend despite recent fluctuations on the daily chart. (AI image)
gold price prediction Today: Gold prices have pulled back from recent highs, but there is an underlying bullish bias, says Manav Modi, senior analyst, commodity research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. Below is his outlook for gold prices today and this week, along with the top factors that will influence the yellow metal’s movements:Gold is hovering around $5,000 after the Fed strengthened expectations of easing due to weaker-than-expected US inflation, which pushed 10-year US Treasury yields lower and market participants peg the chances of a third rate cut by December at around 50%. Last week, inflation figures were reported 0.1% lower than expected. Kevin Wersh’s recent comments indicating a preference for lower policy rates increase expectations of two 25bp cuts in March and June, which would further lower real yields and support gold flows. Geopolitical risks are heightened, with Washington decommissioning the USS Gerald R. With reports of Ford deploying to the Middle East. Meanwhile, markets are increasingly focused on long-running questions over the Fed’s credibility, as well as the potential inflationary impact of Trump’s new tariff threats. Notably, gold is trading at a discount for the first time in almost a month despite strong Chinese demand, with Shanghai warehouse stocks surpassing 100 tonnes, highlighting strong physical buying interest.This week the focus will be on FOMC meeting minutes, PCE price index. The US market remains closed for the President’s Day holiday, while the Chinese market remains closed for a week during the Lunar New Year.Technically, on the daily chart MCX Gold remains broadly bullish despite the recent volatility, with the price well above the key medium-term support zone near Rs 148,000-150,000, which coincides with the 20-day moving average and prior breakout levels. Immediate resistance is seen around 158,000-160,000, where recent highs and upper supply zones are clustered; A sustained close above this band could open the way to new highs. Fibonacci retracement levels suggest strong structural support near the 0.382 and 0.5 zones around $139,000-134,000 on a deeper correction, with the broader uptrend intact until these levels are decisively breached. The volume pattern indicates that the sharp increase seen during the recent selloff was not followed by sustained heavy delivery, indicating profit-booking rather than a trend reversal. From a Bollinger Bands perspective, the price touched the upper band during the recent rally and has since cooled towards the middle band (20-SMA), indicating volatility compression and possible base formation; If the price stabilizes above the mid-band and the bands start expanding again, it will lead to sustained movement higher, while a decisive break below the mid-band could trigger short-term corrective pressure towards lower support.(Disclaimer: The recommendations and views given by experts on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
