Gold Price Prediction Today: Manish Sharma, AVP – Commodities & Currency, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers, says gold prices are likely to see volatility based on inflation expectations and rate cut expectations.Gold posted its sharpest weekly decline in recent years last week, with prices yesterday falling to a four-month low of around $4099/oz.
Reasons for the decline in gold prices since last week
- Higher oil prices led to inflation fears, raising expectations of rate hikes by central banks.
- US Treasury yields remain high – the US 10Y yield was 3.93% on March 3 versus 4.37% today)
- A steady US Dollar (USD) trading above 99 continues to limit the upside for the commodity.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned in early March that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices for a year would increase global inflation by 40 basis points.Global central banks continued to buy gold in the month of January (net 5 tonnes), but the pace has slowed at the start of the year, with 2025 seeing a monthly average of 27 tonnes.The recent weakness in bullion has also been fueled by forced selling, as investors are liquidating gold positions to cover losses elsewhere in their portfolios rather than risking a decline in gold’s long-term fundamentals.Meanwhile the prolonged conflict creates a risk for emerging market central banks to allocate less money to buy gold during the current year as it could be used to finance increased oil purchases and inject liquidity through tools such as quantitative easing to boost economic growth.geopolitical development
- Iran denied it had negotiated with the US to end the war, contradicting US President Donald Trump’s comments on Monday that a deal could be reached soon.
- Apart from this, Mohsen Rezaei, senior military advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, said that the war will continue until Iran receives full compensation for its losses.
- Additionally, energy infrastructure in Iran has reportedly come under new pressure, aided by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz as well as crude oil prices.
Gold Price Broad Outlook (International Markets)
- Weekly View: Spot Gold (CMP 4,410/oz) – Volatile for the current week, negative bias for 1 – 2 weeks
- Spot Silver (CMP $70.10/oz): Bounces towards $73-74/oz, selling opportunity remains for 1-2 weeks
At present, gold and silver have reversed the upward trend seen since the beginning of the year.
- Spot gold (CMP 4410/oz) is seeing a bounce from the four-month low hit yesterday, looking volatile below $4,100 on a weekly basis. On the upside resistance zone $4520 – 4570/oz.
- If oil continues to rise due to prolonged geopolitical tensions, a 10-15% decline in spot prices to $3800-3750/oz in the next 1-2 weeks cannot be ruled out.
- Spot support for silver is pegged at around $56-58/oz, while spot resistance remains at around $73-74/oz.
Gold is now falling each week since the conflict began on February 28 as higher energy prices and geopolitical risks are offset by higher real yields and a stronger dollar, so gold’s direction will depend less on geopolitical headlines and more on how these events shape inflation, monetary policy expectations and real interest rates.(Disclaimer: The recommendations and views given by experts on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)