Gold Price Prediction Today: Gold prices are likely to have a constructive outlook in the short term, while silver is supported in the long term, says Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst – Commodities and Currencies, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.Gold extended its losses this week after falling 1.3% for the second week in a row, as renewed geopolitical tensions and rising US real yields continued to weigh on sentiment. The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, firmer crude oil prices and a stronger US dollar reinforced concerns about inflation, leading markets to price the Fed higher for longer.Rising real yields on the 10-year US Treasury bond (now at their highest level since April 2025) have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, leaving bullion vulnerable despite trading near $4,000 an ounce. A weaker-than-expected US CPI report briefly boosted gold by easing expectations for rate hikes and sending yields and the dollar tumbling, but the rally was short-lived after Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s commitment to restoring price stability, noting that policy decisions will not depend on a single inflation print.
Focus for this week
Immediate attention is focused on the US Producer Price Index (PPI), which will provide new clues on portfolio inflation and the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation measure. Markets will also closely monitor retail sales, weekly jobless claims, housing data, speeches by Federal Reserve officials and movements in Treasury yields, the US dollar and crude oil prices. Any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict will continue to be a major driver of both inflation expectations and safe haven demand.
Technical levels and short-term outlook
Gold (spot) CMP: $4,030/oz
- Support: $3,950 / $3,850
- Resistance: $4,120 / $4,220
MCX Gold CMP: ₹1,41,720
- Support: ₹1,38,500/ ₹1,35,300
- Resistance: 1,44,800 INR/ 1,48,300 INR
Gold Price Outlook
From a fundamental perspective, gold is expected to remain supported as weaker-than-expected US inflation has eased immediate expectations of further Fed tightening, increasing the likelihood of a more data-dependent policy stance.However, the upside could remain limited by high real US Treasury yields, a relatively firm dollar and continued hawkish messaging from the Federal Reserve. Markets will closely monitor the upcoming US PPI, retail sales, labor market data and comments from Fed officials for further guidance on interest rate expectations. Additionally, geopolitical developments in the Middle East and central banks’ gold purchases are likely to support safe-haven demand and provide medium-term support.From a technical perspective, gold would maintain its consolidation range of $3,950-$4,200. Immediate resistance lies between $4,100 and $4,120, and a decisive break above $4,220 could open the way towards $4,320-$4,350. On the downside, failure to hold $4,000 could trigger a corrective move towards $3,950, followed by $3,800.
Silver
Silver is trading near $58.50 an ounce after falling roughly 52% from its all-time high of $121.62 set on Jan. 29 and 18% from its 2025 close, largely due to a stronger U.S. dollar, elevated Treasury yields and hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, rather than any deterioration in market fundamentals. The long-term outlook remains constructive, supported by a projected sixth consecutive annual supply deficit, as most silver production is a byproduct of other metals and cannot be ramped up quickly. In the near term, prices are likely to remain within a certain range, with macroeconomic data, policy signals from the Federal Reserve and movements in the US dollar leading the way, while persistent supply tightness provides a favorable medium-term backdrop.International Silver CMP: $58.50/oz
- Support: $56.50 / $54.50
- Resistance: $62/$65
MCX Silver CMP: ₹2,23,000 (September contract)
- Support: ₹2,15,500/ ₹2,07,800
- Resistance: 2,36,500 INR / 2,47,900 INR
(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, or any other asset class or personal finance management tips provided by experts and analysts are their own. These views do not represent the views of The Times of India.)