gold price prediction Today: Vedika Narvekar, Research Analyst (Commodities and Currency), Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, says any rise in gold and silver prices may face resistance at higher levels.Gold prices continued to fall last week, with international gold falling nearly 2% to close at $4,614 an ounce, while on MCX it was 0.80% weaker at Rs 1,51,352. This reduces gold’s gains for the year to 7%, indicating a cooling phase after a strong rally in early 2026. Notably, this decline came despite ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that macro factors are currently pushing gold higher than safe-haven demand. Higher oil-driven inflation pushed US yields higher (30yr ~ 5.03%, 2yr ~ 3.99%) and delayed Fed rate cut expectations put pressure on gold.On the positive side, demand remains strong, according to the World Gold Council. According to the World Gold Council, global gold demand stood at 1,231 tonnes (+2% YoY), rising 74% to $193 billion in value, supported by bar and coin demand of 474 tonnes (+42%), ETF inflows of 62 tonnes and central bank purchases of 244 tonnes (+3%).In India, total demand increased to 151 tonnes (+10% YoY) led by investment demand of 82 tonnes (+54%), while jewelery demand fell to 66 tonnes (-19%), indicating a clear shift towards investment despite higher prices. Overall, this shift towards investment demand is helping to support gold prices in the medium term, even if short-term pressures continue. Focus for the week:Gold entered the week with a bearish bias, but has bounced back strongly after the US President signaled “big progress” in talks with Iran. Prices are up 0.50% so far this week. However, despite the US downplaying a return to war, continuing incidents near the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty over a deal are stoking inflation concerns, raising expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve and adding to pressure on gold, which has already fallen more than 12% since the end of February. Also, markets will keep a close eye on US macro data, including non-farm payrolls, unemployment trends and comments from Federal Reserve officials as well as updates on the US Treasury’s borrowing plans. Any sign of a slowdown in inflation or growth may provide support to gold, while yields and continued dollar strength may keep prices under pressure.Technical levels and near-term outlookGold (Spot) CMP: $4,560
- Support: $4,450/$4,340
- Resistance: $4700 /$4,850
MCX Gold CMP: Rs 149,750
- Assistance: Rs. 1,46,000/ Rs. 1,42,800
- Resistance: Rs. 1,54,300/ Rs., 1,59,200
Overall, we see that the current rally in gold will move towards the initial resistance of $4,700 and then reverse course while maintaining the short-term trading range of $4,700 and $4,450 taking into account the ongoing geopolitical developments and macroeconomic uncertainty. While near-term upside appears to be limited by higher yields and a stronger dollar, the broader long-term outlook for gold remains constructive, supported by resilient investment demand, continued central bank buying and persistent global uncertainties.Talking about silver, the rally, which started in 2025 and peaked in late January, was driven by expectations of multiple rate cuts in 2026. With those expectations now fading and the Federal Reserve signaling higher rates for longs, silver is likely to struggle to hold higher levels in the near term.International spot silver has also increased and is trading around $75.80 (Rs 2,51,460). The metal is currently close to its strong resistance level of $76 and if this level breaks it has the potential to test $78/$80. However, any reversal from here could push the prices back to $73/71.On MCX, silver is trading around Rs 2,51,460, close to strong resistance at Rs 2,52,000. A breakout above this level could take prices towards Rs 2,58,500, while failure to sustain above it could lead to a decline towards Rs 2,42,000 and Rs 2,35,400.(Disclaimer: The recommendations and views given by experts on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India.)