The seeds of Saturday’s operations in Iran were planted in late December, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Anti-regime protests had only just begun in Iran, and it was not yet clear how significant they would become. Netanyahu used the meeting to discuss the follow-up to last year’s joint strikes, focused primarily on Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, tentatively planned for May.
Within days, the calculus changed.
The regime cracked down with full force and killed thousands of people in Iran. “Help is on the way,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, urging protesters to take control of government institutions.
On January 14, Trump almost ordered attacks, but backed down. Instead, he ordered a massive military surge in the Middle East and began secretly planning a joint operation with Israel.
Over the next few weeks, the Mossad director visited DC twice, followed by the head of Israeli military intelligence and the IDF chief of staff, all coordinating what would become Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion.
THE OTHER TRUE
At the same time, Trump explored whether military influence could produce a deal with Iran on his terms.
The United States and Iran met in Oman in early February for the first time since last June’s 12-day war. Days later, Netanyahu urgently traveled to Washington to discuss US red lines in the negotiations and whether the US and Israel would launch a joint military operation if the talks failed.
From the beginning, Trump’s envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, were skeptical about the chances of reaching a deal, but three American and Israeli officials stressed that the initial nuclear talks in Geneva were not a complete ruse.
Trump wanted to try to reach a deal, and the Iranians were explicitly told that military strikes would occur “if we didn’t see real progress on a real deal very quickly,” a U.S. official said.
BETWEEN THE LINES
A week before the Geneva meeting, the United States and Israel agreed on a possible window to launch the attack: next Saturday, when Khamenei held a routine meeting with his top advisers at his government compound.
But they faced a specific challenge: prevent Khamenei from suspecting anything and retreat to their underground bunker.
An Israeli intelligence official said an Axios story mentioning the possibility of assassinating Khamenei created anxiety among military planners, but the Iranian leader did not change his plans.
THE FINAL TALKS
When Kushner and Witkoff traveled to Geneva on Thursday, they already suspected there was no deal, but they still went ahead with the meeting. That made Iranians believe that diplomacy was alive.
“One of the rules of reaching an agreement is that you have to know very quickly whether there is a deal to be made or not,” said a US official.
In the room, the Iranians had not come close to even the most flexible US position. After the first session, Kushner and Witkoff called Vice President JD Vance via a secure line and told him the differences were still wide. A second round that night changed nothing.
“Kushner and Witkoff saw that the Iranian proposal was nonsense and only intended to buy time,” said a senior US official. “There was no ‘there’ to work with.”
Another official summarized Iran’s strategy as “games, tricks, delaying tactics” from the beginning. “We reported this to the president and obviously he weighed the different options,” the official said.
ZOOM IN
U.S. officials said there were three areas where they could not get Iran to agree.
1.Nuclear program and enrichment activities: The United States offered Iran free nuclear fuel for a civilian nuclear program (indefinitely) in exchange for it giving up enrichment. The Iranians said no. “It was a big revelation,” said one official.
2. Ballistic Missile Program: The Iranians refused “in all cases” to discuss their missile capabilities. “We cannot continue to live in a world where these people not only have missiles but also the ability to make 100 of them a month in perpetuity, to overcome any potential defense,” one official said.
3. Financing of regional proxies: Iran also refused to address its funding of militant groups across the region, which the United States and Israel say have destabilized the Middle East for decades.
BEHIND THE SCENES
Before and during the talks, U.S. officials said intelligence made clear that Iran was already rebuilding nuclear facilities that Trump said were “destroyed” in Operation Midnight Hammer last June.
When Kushner and Witkoff asked for a concrete proposal, the Iranians presented a seven-page document outlining enrichment needs that they claimed were for civilian purposes. Trump’s team verified the figures with the UN nuclear watchdog. “This would result in an enrichment capacity approximately five times greater than that established in the [2015 nuclear deal]”said an official.
The officials also said Iran had been secretly storing enriched material at Tehran’s research reactor under the pretext of conducting medical research.
“They never used any fissile material there to make even a single medicine,” an official said. “Everything was designed to deceive.”
REALITY CHECK
This account is largely based on statements by US and allied officials after the attacks and could not immediately be verified by independent sources.
The last hours: After Geneva, Oman’s foreign minister urgently flew to Washington and met with Vance on Friday in a last attempt to delay Trump’s decision.
But the president had already made a decision.
When an Arab official asked Witkoff on Friday if an attack was imminent, the White House envoy dodged the question.
On Saturday morning, Khamenei convened his aides as American and Israeli planners had planned.
At the same time, two other meetings of Iranian security and intelligence officials were taking place in Tehran. Minutes later, all three were attacked simultaneously.
“If the Iranians had come to Geneva and given Trump what he wanted, he would have stopped the military path. But they were arrogant and thought he would not take action,” said an Israeli intelligence official. “They were wrong.”
– Finish
