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India has raised its growth forecast for the current fiscal year after unveiling a new framework for calculating gross domestic product, highlighting the resilience of the world’s most populous country to global trade disruptions.
According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation on Friday (27 February 2026), India’s GDP growth rate stood at 7.8% in October-December 2025. This compares with 6.2% in the year-ago period and 8.2% in the previous quarter. The GDP data released today is according to the new GDP series that changes the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23.
The government now sees India’s GDP growth rate at 7.6% in FY2026, compared to the first advance estimate of 7.4% in January under the previous series. That matches the expectations of 14 economists tracked by Bloomberg.
India GDP data: Highlights
- India’s fiscal deficit ₹9.81 lakh crore in the financial year till January 2026.
- total expenditure of india ₹₹36.9 lakh crore in 9M FY26.
- total receipts of india ₹Rs 27.1 lakh crore in 9M FY26.
India’s new GDP series
The new GDP series, which changes the base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23, adjusts the weights given to sectors to reflect how the economy has grown over the past decade. A similar revision in 2015 increased India’s GDP by about $120 billion and raised the projected GDP growth rate for 2013–14 from 4.7% to 6.9%.
Madhavi Arora, economist at Emkay Global Financial Services, said the revised series has “improved regional representation” and provides a “more comprehensive capture of economic activity”.
The GDP overhaul is part of a broader effort to update India’s economic data. Earlier this month, the government revised its inflation series to better capture changing spending patterns in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.
Economists are looking to the new calculation method for an indication of when India might overtake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy. Japan’s economy is worth about $4.4 trillion, and India has still not been able to overtake it due to the huge fall of the rupee against the dollar last year.
