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India’s gold demand is likely to decline in 2026 after an 11% decline last year, the World Gold Council said on Thursday, as rising prices dampened jewelery sales and accelerated investment buying.
Sachin Jain, chief executive of WGC’s Indian operations, told Reuters that gold demand could be between 600 tonnes and 700 tonnes, compared with 710.9 tonnes last year, the lowest in five years. According to him, jewelery buyers prefer stable gold prices, but the volatile rising prices of recent months have left consumer budgets stretched.
“Inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will continue to increase,” he said. “The stock market has not performed very well in 2025, so investors are expecting better returns from gold.”
Investments in gold ETFs are set to reach a record Rs 429.6 billion ($4.67 billion) in 2025, up 283% from a year earlier. Domestic gold prices rose 76.5% in 2025, while India’s benchmark Nifty 50 rose 10.5% in 2025.
The World Gold Council said in a report published on Thursday that demand for jewelery in 2025 fell 24% from a year earlier to 430.5 tonnes, the lowest in nearly three decades excluding 2020, when the pandemic distorted the data.
In contrast, investment demand is projected to rise 17% to 280.4 tonnes in 2025, the highest since 2013, the WGC said. Investment demand was a record nearly 40% of India’s total gold consumption in 2025, higher than the usual share of about a quarter.
“Equities may remain weak and less attractive amid higher valuations, tariffs and foreign outflows,” the WGC said. “The gradual shift from jewelery to pure investment demand should continue to support bars and coins.”
High gold prices have historically prompted Indians to sell jewelery and coins in a category called scrap supplies. However, in 2025, supply of such scrap fell 19% to 92.7 tonnes from a year earlier, as expectations for further price increases persisted despite bullion hitting new record highs almost weekly.
