India’s retail inflation rate fell to its record low in October 2025 due to a sharp decline in food inflation and GST rate cut.
The consumer price index – a measure of India’s retail inflation – rose 0.25% from a year ago, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation on Wednesday. That compares with Bloomberg’s estimate of 4%. The reading is the lowest since at least 2012.
The record-low inflation rate is due to the high base effect – India’s food inflation rose last year – even as household goods became cheaper due to the GST rate cut that came into effect on September 22.
“The decline in core inflation and food inflation is primarily due to the impact of the full month of decline in GST,” the government said in a statement.
Food prices declined 5.02% year-on-year in October against a revised decline of 2.33% in September. Vegetable prices declined by 27.57% after a fall of 21.38% a month ago.
To be sure, the softening in prices may be short-lived, with the Reserve Bank of India projecting the retail inflation rate to reach 4% in the next quarter due to less favorable base effect.
