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Oil prices still above pre-war levels despite hopes of US-Iran ceasefire

Oil was trading around $80 a barrel on Tuesday after weeks of turmoil in energy markets as chaos in the Middle East showed signs of easing. However, benchmarks were still trading higher than Monday, as details of the peace deal remain in shadow.At around 7:15am IST, WTI crude was trading at $81.12 a barrel, up $0.37 or 0.46%, while Brent crude was at $83.43 a barrel, up $0.26 or 0.31%.It comes after oil prices fell nearly 5% on Monday to their lowest level since March 4, when US President Donald Trump said a memorandum of understanding had been signed to end the conflict. The war had blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route that normally carried one-fifth of the world’s oil supply before the conflict, and resulted in the shutdown of about 14 million barrels per day of production.Although oil prices remain above around $70 a barrel seen before the war, they are well below the $100 a barrel recorded a few weeks ago. The decline has raised hopes that lower energy costs could ease pressure on households and businesses that have faced higher prices for essential goods from food and fuel to fertilizer because of the conflict with Iran.Iran ratified the agreement, although it does not represent a final agreement on issues including Iran’s nuclear program. Negotiations on those matters are expected to continue for the next 60 days.Despite the optimism generated by the announcement, the full details of the memorandum have not been made public and a permanent ceasefire has not yet been established. Early indications suggest the agreement could reopen the blocked Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire for 60 days, allowing negotiators to address complex issues such as the future of Iran’s nuclear program.On Monday, Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian described the US-Iran memorandum of understanding as an “important step” toward ending the fighting, but said a final agreement ensuring a permanent cease-fire “has not yet taken shape.”A senior Iranian official said on Monday that, until a final agreement is reached, Iran will freeze its nuclear activity by refraining from further uranium enrichment or expanding its nuclear facilities.Even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens on Friday as expected, it is likely to take several months for the energy sector to return to full operating capacity. Tankers will still need time to enter ports, load cargo and complete the journey to Asian markets, which are major buyers of Gulf oil exported by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman.

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