Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight on the weekend’s action and gives Wolves the chance to move Tottenham closer to a notable relegation.
Fulham vs Aston Villa, Saturday 12.30pm
There are places on the Premier League calendar where trends can point you firmly in one direction. Overall, Fulham are well-drilled, tactically flexible under Marco Silva and capable of producing big moments at home. But there’s a clear pattern emerging at the end of the season that’s impossible to ignore.
Fulham’s form during April and May has been nothing short of alarming. Only four wins in their last 20 Premier League games at this stage of the season tell their own story. Whether due to physical decline, mental fatigue or simply campaign failure, the trend is consistent and, from a betting perspective, highly exploitable.
Aston Villa, still with plenty to play for, look overpriced at 13/8 with Sky Bet for the away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Aston Villa wins (13/8 with Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3:00 p.m. – PLAY SUPER 6!
Naturally, all the attention in this game will be on the goals, the scorers, and the regular starters, but delving into the foul markets yields a price that seems wildly out of line. Virgil van Dijk fouling at 4/5 with Sky Bet just doesn’t fit well when you line it up with the data.
He has scored 12 fouls in his last nine Premier League starts; Not explosive numbers on the surface, but more than enough to suggest that this price should be short and not the market outsider.
Van Dijk is not operating with the same calm authority we expected. There’s a little more urgency to his defense right now. Decision making is not as clear and the timing is not as precise.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
West Ham vs Everton, Saturday 3:00 p.m. – PLAY SUPER 6!
There’s a nice narrative hook here – the David Moyes derby – but the betting angle sits firmly on the player card markets. This has all the hallmarks of a tense and conflictive affair. Moyes’ teams do not usually do exhibitions, they do have structure, discipline and many duels. That’s exactly the type of environment in which cards come into play.
Jake O’Brien getting a card at 5/2 with Sky Bet looks big when you dig into what he will likely face over 90 minutes.
Crysencio Summerville has been one of the most effective free-kick makers in the Premier League this season. Fourteen yellow cards earned from opponents say it all: he is direct, aggressive in his run and, most importantly, forces defenders to make decisions they don’t want to make.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Wolves vs Tottenham, Saturday 3:00 p.m. – PLAY SUPER 6!
There are shocks. These occur weekly in football betting.
But then there are seismic, industry-shaking, jaw-dropping moments that force you to recalibrate what you thought was possible. We are looking one directly in the face.
With five games left, Tottenham, the current European champion, has a chance of being relegated. The unthinkable is happening.
However, this is the match that could change everything. Wolves are what Tottenham could soon be: relegated. Three easy points then for the Londoners? Hardly. Not with this team that has shown an inability to face this pressure situation.
Spurs at 8/11 with Sky Bet for the away win is the easiest price to avoid of the season. Back Wolves, who recently beat Liverpool and Aston Villa at home and drew with Arsenal, in the double chance market at 11/10 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Double chance for Wolves (10/11 with Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Southampton, FA Cup semi-final, Saturday 5.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
This could be a great watch and end up being closer than the odds imply.
Manchester City has 1/20 with Sky Bet to reach the final. That’s a price fraught with danger based on what this Southampton team is capable of doing.
A 20-game unbeaten run for the south coast side, which includes wins over Fulham, Arsenal and Coventry, means Pep Guardiola’s side will need to play close to their best to win. The shock pays 15/2 with Sky Bet. It’s worth a bite.
The Saints will play predominantly in transition and that makes Man City’s card line attractive.
The opponent has been shown two or more cards in 10 of Southampton’s last 11 games, with an average of 2.4 cards per game. City are 6/4 and Sky Bet will show on 1.5 cards (90 minutes only). That’s a big price considering Southampton possess one of the best card drawers in Leo Scienza, who has been responsible for drawing 14 cards from the opposition this season in the Championship.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 (Southampton will win on penalties) | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Southampton qualify (15/2 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Newcastle, Saturday at 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports: PLAY SUPER 6!
If Arsenal are going to overtake Manchester City in the title race, it won’t be because they suddenly outgun everyone in sight. It will be based on their defensive process, which is still as good as that of European football.
Mikel Arteta’s team has reached this level due to its structure, spacing and collective understanding without the ball. It’s elite. They limit transitions, protect central zones and force opponents into low-quality chances. It’s not always spectacular, but it’s incredibly effective.
Arsenal have shown a tendency to prioritize control over risk when the stakes are high. That naturally slows the pace and reduces the volume of opportunities on both ends. It’s no coincidence that its recent numbers point firmly in that direction. In his last 12 games, the total goals average is only 2.05.
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Arsenal will want to be in control, Newcastle will be happy to frustrate and neither side is likely to throw caution to the wind.
Under 2.5 goals at 5/4 with Sky Bet stands out as the value angle.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Chelsea vs Leeds, FA Cup semi-final, Sunday at 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Opposing goals in matches at Wembley remains a sustainable long-term betting strategy. It may be the mecca of English football (playing there is every footballer’s dream), but I’m convinced the place takes the momentum out of a match.
Maybe the danger of the stakes plays a role, which in turn leads to low-scoring games, but I think the games there rarely come to life. The figures remain overwhelming and provide strong evidence that Wembley is a place to back up low scores.
And the under goal theory in matches at Wembley is certainly at play in this game.
In the last 51 domestic and European games played at Wembley, the average goals per game is 1.9 and 92 per cent of those games have come to less than 3.5 goalkeepers, which is an odds of 4/11 and is a great starting point for those planning to build something through the BuildABet feature.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Manchester United vs Brentford, Monday at 8pm, live on Sky Sports
There’s usually a sweet spot in the foul market where role, matchup and price collide and this looks like one of them.
Michael Kayode committing two or more fouls at 9/4 with Sky Bet is very appealing when you look at what he’s getting himself into here.
His direct opponent is Matheus Cunha and he is exactly the type of striker that gets defenders into trouble. Cunha is averaging two fouls committed per game this season, based on precise movement, close control and willingness to go down under contact.
Kayode committed two fouls in the reverse match, so at 9/4, you’re effectively betting on a repeat of a scenario we’ve already seen.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Jones knows the best bet:
1-point hat trick for Aston Villa to win, Wolves to have a double chance and Southampton to qualify for the FA Cup final (36/1 with Sky Bet)