Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight ahead of a busy weekend in the Premier League.
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest, Friday at 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Having been working and betting on the Premier League for over 15 years, there are some betting strategies that have proven to be very sustainable when implemented correctly. And one of them is respecting Sean Dyche’s teams when they are in good form.
Once Dyche’s message gets through and the team fully commits to the physical, disciplined and no-nonsense approach, performances stop fluctuating and become consistent. This is a key aspect of finding reliable teams to bet on.
In their last six games in the Premier League and Europa League, Nottingham Forest look like a classic Dyche team, having conceded just two goals.
This will be a horrible game, with a lot of duels, a lot of set pieces, and this is where their teams thrive.
Leeds are also excellent at playing this style, but there is a bit of nervousness starting to creep back into their season. There are similar styles on the table here, but Forest are more experienced and have a better quality of player and coach to execute a winning game plan. Forest stands out in the no bet draw at 11/8 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Manchester United vs Tottenham, Saturday 12:30 p.m.
This season, a record number of goals are being scored from set-piece situations, corners are very dangerous avenues for scoring goals, and aerially dominant centre-backs have never been more valuable from a betting perspective. However, one of the best set-piece attackers in world football has barely been on the field for most of the time.
However, Harry Maguire is back in the Manchester United squad and looks in good form in both areas. Since his return, he has recorded four shots in just 281 minutes, generating an expected goals figure of 0.62, which is, of course, a considerable amount for a centre-half. That includes hitting the crossbar against Manchester City.
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Maguire has value and it is in the prices of his shots, especially his 10/11 headers with Sky Bet. In the last six Premier League seasons, only Virgil van Dijk has recorded a higher percentage of headers than Maguire: one every 177 minutes.
As long as this bet is 10/11 or more, it is an automatic return for me if Manchester United are the favorites to win the match.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Arsenal vs Sunderland, Saturday 3:00 p.m.
Like most of Arsenal’s home games against someone outside the elite, this is a challenging betting tie with the Gunners at 1/5 with Sky Bet to get the odds. Other traditional markets, like the 2.5 over/under line, are also priced right, so we have to get creative here to get some perspective.
It’s worth taking a look at the prices for Trai Hume’s fouls committed in Evens for 2+ with Sky Bet.
Hume has committed 16 fouls in his last eight starts, averaging perfectly on that two-foul line with a position change that helps maintain those voluminous foul numbers. He is playing more like an inverted midfielder than a full-back and being in the heat of battle against the Gunners will see him threaten that foul line.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, Saturday 3:00 p.m.
Bournemouth will commit the most fouls in each half at 11/10 with Sky Bet betting on each of the last five head-to-head meetings.
That is not a coincidence.
This match is constantly riddled with fouls due to the tactical clash between the coaches, as Villa, under Unai Emery, are happy to play fast and vertically, forcing Bournemouth into reactive defending, broken play and ultimately fouls to stop transitions. The numbers back this up too, with the head-to-head record showing Bournemouth averaging 17 fouls per game, compared to just 10 for Aston Villa.
On the downside, backing Bournemouth to win the foul count in both halves seems like a smart way to play a matchup that keeps telling us the same story.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Burnley vs West Ham, Saturday 3:00 p.m.
Crysencio Summerville is thriving under Nuno Espirito Santo, not only in terms of his overall offensive performance but also in the way he terrorizes defenders.
The only way to stop him is to foul him, which results in cards. Under Nuno, Summerville have stolen 12 cards from their rivals, the most of any player in the Premier League this season. Kyle Walker will be responsible for stopping him, a player who has already received eight cards this season. The 100/30 with Sky Bet for a Walker card is very generous.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Kyle Walker will receive a card (100/30 with Sky Bet)
Fulham vs Everton, Saturday 3:00 p.m.
James Garner will have 2+ shots at 11/8 with Sky Bet is attractive.
Garner’s development this season has been a real success story for David Moyes, who has pushed him further up from midfield, allowing him to get into shooting positions rather than simply recycling possession. The raw numbers tell the story that no Everton player has attempted more shots this season than Garner (39), underlining how heavy his licensed role has become. This pairing fits that trend as well. In the first leg against Fulham, he fired four shots.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Wolves vs Chelsea, Saturday 3:00 p.m.
Yerson Mosquera to score for Wolves at 16/1 with Sky Bet is firmly on the radar against a Chelsea team who continue to look alarmingly vulnerable in dead ball situations.
Only Crystal Palace have conceded more expected goals from set pieces than Chelsea this season (12.67 xG), while 10 actual goals conceded from those scenarios underlines that this is a structural problem, not bad luck.
And one that has not been resolved since the change of coach.
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Chelsea manager Liam Rosenior had some highlights before, during and after his team’s defeat to Arsenal in the second leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final.
That will be music to the ears of a Wolves team that is unapologetically set-piece orientated under Rob Edwards, with delivery and movement clearly trained on the training pitch. Mosquera is also acquiring more and more prominence in these situations. He has been close in recent weeks, racking up 11 shots in his last six games and was very unlucky to hit the post against Bournemouth last weekend.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Yerson Mosquera scores (16/1 with Sky Bet)
Newcastle vs Brentford, Saturday at 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Rico Henry, who will be carded at 9/2 with Sky Bet, looks like a lovely angle to attack given what is brewing on that flank in terms of fouls in this game. Henry is likely to spend long periods dealing with Anthony Elanga and that is a confrontation that tends to end with the defender risking a card.
Since the start of last season, Elanga has received 20 yellow cards from his opponents, using his pace and direct running to force last-minute challenges when passing the ball to his man. The timing also seems right. Elanga showed signs of fitness again in his last game against Manchester City, scoring a beautiful goal and posing a real threat in transition as he repeatedly took on his full-back one-on-one.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Brighton vs Crystal Palace, Sunday at 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Crystal Palace are winless in their last 12 games in all competitions, but everyone knows their current difficult situation. But it’s also pretty bleak in Brighton, which has finally started to show me how overrated it is. Only one win in 11 matches means Fabian Hurzeler now faces enormous pressure.
And this is exactly the type of opposition they fight against: low blocking, long, fast vertical football and a head-to-head record of winning only two of the last 13 matches against their rivals. If we look at the match odds, where Brighton is close to Evens, market forces are also cooling on this Brighton team, which is a big indicator that Hurzeler will have a hard time turning things around.
However, relying on Palace is also not viable, meaning it makes a lot of sense to back the draw at 13/5 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday at 4:30 p.m., live on Sky Sports
Liverpool at 8/11 with Sky Bet? Sign me up.
Since the draw at Leeds, their defensive numbers have reverted to what they were last season, offering very little to the opposition in terms of big chances. In their last 13 games, they have conceded just 0.75 goals per game against a backdrop of 0.8 expected goals against per game. Arne Slot has fixed the leak.
However, Manchester City’s defensive structure and play out of possession have quietly become a cause for concern. They are showing signs of the same problems as last season, when teams found it very easy to play through City’s midfield and defense to create big opportunities.
Since drawing with Chelsea, in six games in which they have gone by more than 1/3 to win, they have been repeatedly poorly exposed defensively, sending an expected goals against count of 1.6 per 90 and facing 4.8 shots on target per 90.
Liverpool can run wild if City don’t adjust, meaning the home team handicap market of -1 to 7/2 with Sky Bet is a great way to back Slot’s men to win by two or more goals.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-1 | JONES KNOWS THE BEST BET: Liverpool -1 handicap (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Jones Knows Best Bets…
- 1-point double: Kyle Walker will be cautioned and Liverpool -1 handicap against Man City (18/1 with Sky Bet)
- 1 point on Yerson Mosquera to score for Wolves (16/1 with Sky Bet)
