We are roughly two-thirds of the way through the Premier League season, but there is plenty of work to do inside and outside England for the clubs currently chasing the title.
It’s just not as simple as looking at the 13 games left on the calendars of the top three teams, Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa, because the trio have European and domestic cup matches left on the agenda. They could have between 16 and 26 games between now and the Champions League final on May 30.
FURTHER – Premier League schedule and results | current table
Then there is the question of determining the number of teams that will compete for the title or a spot in the top five. Is it simply being polite to keep Villa in the equation, nine points up and two teams ahead? Or, given the small potential number of points to win the crown, should we widen the field to include a single competition team like Manchester United who could stay warm and make a run? Ask Kevin Keegan what is possible.
Arsenal are on course to pick up just over 85 points at 2.24 points per Premier League game this season and mid-80s may well become the new norm for a champion of the deepest division the world has ever seen. Winners with more than 90 total points have become more normal in the last decade, but the depth of the competition is so strong that the three centurions (Chelsea once, Man City twice) of the last decade already feel like outliers.
FURTHER – Fan Fest heads to Tampa for a big week of PL games
There’s also the issue of expected points, arguably the most misused metric in sports. They show the quality of past performances, but all too often you’ll read someone using them to project future point totals or goals. Take Arsenal for example. They have accumulated 56 points and have missed some important players at the beginning of that stretch. Manchester City have not had a fully fit Rodri until recent weeks and were without Marc Guehi or Antoine Semenyo until this month. Man United and others missed out on key pieces for AFCON. Multiplying the remaining games assuming these teams will play at the same pace against different opponents with different lineups is ridiculous. Anyway….
Before we start projecting the Premier League winners, let’s ask some interesting questions. For example, could Arsenal, Man City and Villa not be the final identity of the PL top three?
Premier League title race: Who has the easiest route home? Who can crash into the ‘top three’?
For this exercise, let’s simply examine the Premier League rivals left on the schedule.
Yes, we know each team plays the same 19 opponents twice each, but it’s about the road home and with 13 opponents remaining there are bound to be some busts.
And that’s why Arsenal should feel good about ending their wait for a Premier League title. He The Gunners have one of the four easiest calendars left to continue with their six-point lead in the table. Aston Villa are there with them, but they have to recover those nine points without facing the Gunners.
Manchester United and Chelsea surely believe they can be 4 or 5 points better than Villa, but is that reasonable?
Maybe.
Chelsea have the second-toughest list in the Premier League and face a six-match stretch that begins with trips to Villa and Arsenal three days in a row from Newcastle, Everton, Man City and Man United.
But there is another way to measure the ease of programming and that is the large number of games. Manchester United’s miserable cup season means Michael Carrick’s men have just 13 games left and two of their three biggest requests (Liverpool and Villa) go to Old Trafford. With 39 points available, they could aim for nine wins and be very close to Villa’s current points per game (1.88).
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 1: Manchester United coach and manager Michael Carrick celebrates with Benjamin Sesko of Manchester United at full time during the Premier League match between Manchester United and Fulham at Old Trafford on February 1, 2026 in Manchester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images)
Premier League title, top five race: More big games left
Almost all contenders have at least one brutal stretch left in their agenda.
Arsenal They have back-to-back games, both London derbies, against Spurs and Chelsea a week apart later this month.
Chelsea going to Arsenal and Villa three days apart to start March, and then hosting Man City and Man United a week apart in April and Liverpool and Spurs a week apart in May. The last two sections could also affect tournament matches.
city man get Chelsea and Arsenal in consecutive weeks in April with a possible Champions League quarter-final touching on those games.
Liverpool face Man United and Chelsea in consecutive weeks at the beginning of May.
Villa Aston The season ends with visits from Liverpool and Man City.
manchester united, Again, take a break from the schedule makers.
AND – attention: tampa – the weekend of April 18 is shaping up to be a special one, with Man City vs Arsenal, Chelsea vs Man United and Everton vs Liverpool on the fixture list.
- February 22: Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal
- March 1: Arsenal-Chelsea
- March 4: Aston Villa-Chelsea
- March 15: Manchester United vs Aston Villa
- April 11: Chelsea vs Manchester City
- April 18: Manchester City vs Arsenal
- April 18: Chelsea vs Manchester United
- April 18: Everton-Liverpool
- May 2: Manchester United-Liverpool
- May 9: Liverpool-Chelsea
- May 17: Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
- May 17: Aston Villa-Liverpool
- May 24: Aston Villa vs Manchester City
Arsenal’s remaining schedule
*if required
#subject to change if Arsenal advance in cups
February 12 at Brentford
February 15 against Wigan Athletic (FA Cup)
February 18 at Wolves
February 22 at Tottenham Hotspur
March 1 against Chelsea
March 4 at Brighton & Hove Albion
*March 7 FA Cup fifth round
March 10 and 11 First leg of the Champions League round of 16
March 15 vs Everton
March 17 and 18, second leg of the Champions League round of 16
March 22 vs Manchester City (League Cup Final)
*April 4 FA Cup quarter-finals
*April 7 and 8, first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals
April 11 against Bournemouth
*April 14 and 15, second leg of the Champions League quarterfinals
April 18 at Manchester City
April 25 vs Newcastle United#
*April 25 FA Cup semi-finals
*April 28 and 29, first leg of the Champions League semi-finals
May 2 vs Fulham
*May 5 and 6, second leg of the Champions League semi-finals
May 9 at West Ham United
*May 16 FA Cup Final
May 17 vs Burnley#
May 24 at the Crystal Palace
*May 30 Champions League Final
Manchester City’s remaining schedule
*if required
#subject to change if City advance in cups
February 11 vs Fulham
February 14 against Salford City (FA Cup)
February 21 against Newcastle
February 28 in Leeds
March 4 against Nottingham Forest
*March 7 FA Cup fifth round
March 10 and 11 First leg of the Champions League round of 16
March 14 at West Ham
March 17 and 18, second leg of the Champions League round of 16
March 21 vs Crystal Palace#
March 22 vs Arsenal (League Cup Final)
*April 4 FA Cup quarter-finals
*April 7 and 8, first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals
April 11 at Chelsea
*April 14 and 15, second leg of the Champions League quarterfinals
April 18 vs Arsenal
April 25 at Burnley#
*April 25 FA Cup semi-finals
*April 28 and 29, first leg of the Champions League semi-finals
May 2 at Everton
*May 5 and 6, second leg of the Champions League semi-finals
May 9 against Brentford
*May 16 FA Cup Final
May 17 in Bournemouth#
May 24 vs Aston Villa
*May 30 Champions League Final
Aston Villa’s remaining schedule
*if required
#subject to change if Villa advances in cups
February 11 against Brighton
February 14 against Newcastle United (FA Cup)
February 21 against Leeds United
February 28 at Wolves
March 4 against Chelsea
*March 7 FA Cup fifth round
March 12 First leg of the Europa League round of 16
March 15 at Manchester United
March 19 Europa League Round of 16 second leg match
March 22 vs West Ham United
*April 4 FA Cup quarter-finals
*April 9, first leg of the Europa League quarterfinals.
April 11 at Nottingham Forest
*April 16, second leg of the Europa League quarterfinals
April 18 against Sunderland
April 25 in Fulham#
*April 25 FA Cup semi-finals
*April 30 First leg of the Europa League semi-finals
May 2 vs Tottenham Hotspur
*May 7, second leg of the Europa League semi-finals.
May 9 at Burnley
*May 16 FA Cup Final
May 17 vs Liverpool#
*May 20 Europa League Final
May 24 at Manchester City
Projected point totals for top-five races
- Arsenal: 88 points
- Manchester City: 85 points
- Chelsea: 76 points
- Manchester United: 76 points
- Aston Villa: 76 points
- Liverpool: 74 points
This is so, so difficult. Arsenal’s schedule is not only the easiest, but it also includes the fewest games in which their dropped points would directly and immediately benefit the opposition on the field that day. Chelsea’s schedule is very difficult, but their goal difference can put them ahead of the group. And City fans, don’t be mad: we’ve seen your team go months without losing and this projection includes a head-to-head win at home against the Gunners.
Gyokeres’ double gives Arsenal a 3-0 lead
Viktor Gyokeres completes his brace off the bench as the Gunners put the icing on the cake of Arsenal’s dominant performance against Sunderland at the Emirates.