Hair
NBA (0.75 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Golden State Warriors Over 229.5 (-110; odds via Caesars): 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC
The previous two games this season exceeded this total, and I understand that those games featured Steph Curry and/or Jimmy Butler, which won’t happen today. But I expect this Nuggets offense to do a lot of work to put this game over the top, as they are clicking on a whole different level right now. Losing 157 points the other night in a fair game is an outlier, but not as much of an outlier as you might expect.
This Denver offense is by far the best in the league in almost any metric you can name, even against top 10 defenses, which is what Golden State boasts about. Importantly, the Nuggets will be without Aaron Gordon, and when he is out but Nikola Jokic plays, Denver’s games will be 22-6 at the end. However, the Warriors should be able to contribute something here, especially from the three-point line, and I think that helps this game overcome a relatively low number.
NBA (0.5 units) NY Knicks -10 @ Chicago Bulls (-110; odds via Caesars): 7:00 pm CT on CHSN
The Knicks were pretty much a lifeless team for 7 quarters after the All-Star break, then woke up in the fourth last night. I’m counting on that shakeup to carry over into this game against a Bulls team that is intentionally lifeless. The February tank marathon for Chicago continues after the Pistons beat them last night, leaving an 0-8 month for the Bulls, who posted an average margin of -17.9 in those games. The Knicks can’t afford to drown in games like this, and I doubt the Bulls will allow them as they try to pile up losses.
NBA (1 unit) Portland Trail Blazers/Phoenix Suns Over 222.5 (-110; odds via Fanduel): 7:00 pm CT on KUNP
These teams have met twice this season, crushing this total both times with 237 and 255 points. The roster setup has been as disjointed as possible in those games, but before you tell me Phoenix won’t have Devin Booker tonight, just know that the highest-scoring game came without Booker or Deni Avdija playing. Since Phoenix went to double overtime yesterday, their defensive legs won’t be fully there, especially with their best defender, Dillon Brooks, out with a hand injury.
This situation also sets off a trend for Portland, which is 10-3 this season when it has a halftime lead against its opponent, leading by 9.8 points on average. The Blazers should be in a bad mood after being blown out by 54 points on Friday night, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take the opportunity to run up the score themselves. There should be a lot of threes in this game and a faster pace driven by Portland, so I like the over on this fairly low total.
Bonus Bet (0.5 units): Deni Avdija 34.5+ Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Avdija currently has a questionable tag heading into this game, so keep an eye on his status. But if he plays, he should have a good chance of contributing in all phases. His scoring is expected to get back on track after just 26 total points in his last 2 games, and no Dillon Brooks bothering him will definitely help. The entire Blazers team should be highly motivated to clean up the memory of Friday night’s loss, and I think Avdija is leading that charge with a big game here.
degenerates
Today there are no degenerates.
Tiny Tracker for the last 7 days: 20-27 (-1.95 Units) – Recommend: Follow with extreme caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he relies on the most, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier choices..
