Tiny Nick Game Picks 05/03 & more related news here

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NBA (0.5 units) Detroit Pistons/San Antonio Spurs Under 228.5 (-110; odds via Fanduel): 7:00 pm CT on Fanduel Sports Detroit

Second part of the NBA Finals preview? The first game was good and if it was any indication, these teams are much more focused on the defensive end of the floor. That game ended with 217 points and both teams, who are ranked in the top 3 in the league in defensive efficiency, showed why they can shut down anyone.

San Antonio has really clamped down lately, allowing just 105.8 points per game since the All-Star break, but here they find themselves in a classic Malinsky Special after a long journey. That tends to impact the offense more than the defense, so the Pistons’ elite defense should be able to stop the Spurs in a place of revenge for them. This is a 4 point adjustment from the total that was too high for the first meeting, but I don’t think it’s gone down enough for the type of game I see playing out tonight.

NBA (0.5 units) LA Lakers/Denver Nuggets Over 240.5 (-110; odds via Fanduel): 9:00 pm CT on Prime Video

This should be a completely different type of basketball than Spurs/Pistons, as two teams with a lot of defensive problems take the court. I’ve been surprised at how bad the Nuggets’ defense has been since the All-Star break, particularly in perimeter defense. And the Lakers are falling apart defensively with LeBron showing his age and Luka showing his attitude, so I have no confidence in them to stop the best overall offense in the league.

This is actually a matchup between the two best shooting teams in the league, while both defenses rank in the bottom 10 in rating and efficiency. This is how the Nuggets have achieved the best record in the league, while the Lakers are not far behind, and I see another one tonight even with this high number.

NCAA Basketball (0.75 unit) Loyola-MD/Colgate Over 151.5 (-110; odds via Fanduel): 6:00 pm CT on ESPN+

This is a misjudged total, plain and simple, almost as if the books thought this game was being played on a neutral court. If that were the case, with odd prospects for both teams, I might agree with this number as reasonable, but these teams have proven that it is not. With 164 and 166 regulation points in the two meetings this season, the Raiders and Greyhounds have been up and down the court with highly efficient shooting, crushing the total in both games.

That’s likely to continue here, as neither defense is capable of stopping what the opposing offense excels at, especially Loyola, who ranks 333rd in overall defensive efficiency and 351st in two-point defense percentage. The Greyhounds should throw everything they have at Colgate, though, and just a 6.5-point spread suggests we could get foul play points late to run up the score, so I really like the above.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 units) Pepperdine/Portland Over 151.5 (-110; odds via Fanduel): 8:00 pm CT on ESPN+

The metrics sites have this a couple of points less, but they don’t take into account the situation here. There’s no way to quantify Pepperdine’s attitude down the stretch of the season, with the Waves hitting the eff-it button on defense. That has resulted in 10 overs in a row in their games, and I think another can be found here in a game where they have nothing to lose.

In fact, Pepperdine has defeated Portland in both meetings this season, which couldn’t be further apart stylistically as the first totaled 130 and the second 182 points. However, it is more important to focus on the second game, as that was the road game for Pepperdine and they have been much worse defensively on the road this season. A neutral court game here in Las Vegas can definitely affect shooting to some extent, but these are not good defenses and Portland has been horrible defending the three, so I can see the points coming here.

NCAA Basketball (0.5 units) Evansville Under-25 first-half team total (-110; odds via Caesars): 8:30 p.m. CT on ESPN+

Arch Madness starts today and I know Northern Iowa is in a bad mood about having to play a first round game. The Panthers are poised to win this tournament thanks to their elite defense that ranks 22nd nationally in adjusted efficiency and 3rd in three-point defense percentage. Several close games have not gone as expected in conference play; otherwise, they would have first place for this event.

I think they’re taking it out on poor Evansville by clamping down on defense, which they’ve already done to them this season. Evansville only managed 18 and 21 points in the first half in regular season meetings, and this neutral court game where both teams are going to play very slowly should lower their scoring again. The possessions won’t be there and the offense simply isn’t good enough for the Purple Aces to score effectively against a motivated UNI defense, so they will look very pathetic again entering this game.

degenerates

Today there are no degenerates.

Tiny Tracker for the last 7 days: 15-19 (-3.00 units) – Recommended: Consider fading

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he relies on the most, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier choices..