The winners of the 31st Critics Choice Awards reflected how much of the industry views the Oscar race and, in key ways, radically changed it.
With the Golden Globes approaching next Sunday night and Oscar nominations voting opening Monday morning, the CCA ceremony served as one of the final and significant data points before Academy members begin filling out the ballots. In this context, the overwhelming award for best film, director and adapted screenplay for “One Battle After Another” by Paul Thomas Anderson sends an unequivocal message to the rest of the sector: this is the film to beat. Historically, that combination is Oscar catnip: a filmmaker-driven vision combined with broad, cross-sector support.
In the era of preferential voting, breadth often defeats intensity, and “One Battle After Another” now seems the title most capable of surviving each round of redistribution.
And yet, the sweep also comes with a built-in asterisk. Critics don’t vote for the Oscars. That has long been my number one rule in awards forecasting, and it still applies. But when a film satisfies critics while also offering innovative storytelling that appeals to Academy voters of all demographics, it becomes extremely difficult to dislodge. Expect “One Battle After Another” to gain real momentum as the Oscar nominations approach, particularly in the craft categories, and if it can retain some traction for its acting contenders, including Chase Infiniti and possibly add additional recognition for Regina Hall.
A central question that arises now is whether “One Battle After Another” can complete Paul Thomas Anderson’s trifecta without also win a performance or craft category. Historically, that path is rare. The last three films to win best picture without at least acting or craft were “The Greatest Show on Earth” (1952), “Midnight Cowboy” (1969) and “Spotlight” (2015). With Variety Projecting “Battle After Battle” to approach the top tier of all-time nomination totals, a scenario it so casually turns into on Oscar night, would seem counterintuitive for a film currently considered inevitable. A more plausible result may look like “The Shape of Water” (2017), which combines film and director with selective below-the-line support.
Still, this race is far from settled. Warner Bros. led all studios overall, thanks in large part to “Sinners,” which co-led all films with four awards: original screenplay for Ryan Coogler, best young actor for Miles Caton, best cast and ensemble, and best score for Ludwig Göransson. That package suggests more than just passion: It hints at a possible coalition. If “Sinners” can carry this momentum through the Golden Globes and turn it into support from SAG, the Writers Guild and other major guilds, it could become the season’s ultimate spoiler.
Academy voters have repeatedly shown their willingness to reward bold originality when combined with technical achievement, and “Sinners” is starting to look like this year’s version of that formula. The win for the original script is particularly notable. This is a category in which the Academy frequently diverges from its critics, often favoring dialogue-driven work over structural innovation. Coogler’s win shows that the film has made progress that could translate directly to the Oscar ballots, especially within the screenwriting branch, which consistently punches above its weight in the best picture race.
Jacob Elordi, winner of the award for best supporting actor for “Frankenstein”.
Getty Images for Critics’ Choice
Netflix’s “Frankenstein” also took home four awards, highlighting the surprising best supporting actor award for Jacob Elordi as the Creature in Guillermo del Toro’s gothic epic. So far, Elordi has picked up just two critics’ awards this season, from the New York Film Critics Online and the Oklahoma Film Critics Circle, which raises two immediate questions. Has he just secured a nomination after weeks of being seen as marginal behind Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn, Stellan Skarsgård and Paul Mescal? Or did we witness the Critics Choice version of the Aaron Taylor-Johnson effect, referencing his Golden Globe win for “Nocturnal Animals” that ultimately didn’t translate into an Oscar nomination?
The main difference here is significant. “Frankenstein” is much more firmly entrenched in the best-picture conversation than “Nocturnal Animals.” And, most importantly, no Critics Choice winner for best supporting actor has ever missed out on an Oscar nomination. On that basis alone, Elordi now seems secure in the lineup (at least pending SAG nominations this week). Whether he becomes a serious threat to win is a separate discussion, one that depends on the follow-up at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. If that were to happen, the race would quickly recalibrate.
Acting careers elsewhere remain fluid. Jessie Buckley’s win for playing Agnes Shakespeare in Chloé Zhao’s grief-soaked drama “Hamnet” came with the most emotional speech of the night and offers voters a clear, focused way to reward a film that may fall short in the best picture award, given that Buckley was the film’s only winner. Her two closest competitors, Renate Reinsve and Rose Byrne, will have to catch up in the future if they want to beat Buckley.
Timothée Chalamet’s win as best actor for “Marty Supreme” further solidifies his front-runner status heading into the Globes, where the organization’s gender-friendly body could amplify his lead.
But it is never that simple. At 30, Chalamet would become the second-youngest best actor winner in Oscar history, and is now the youngest to win the Critics Choice Award. Remember, this is the same Academy that made Leonardo DiCaprio wait until he was 41 to decide to throw him a bone for getting into a corpse in “The Revenant” (2015). This race has been tight all season, with Chalamet trading wins with Michael B. Jordan for “Sinners,” while Ethan Hawke remains a major factor for “Blue Moon” and DiCaprio stars as the best picture favorite. The CCA story offers some cautionary tales: Critics Choice winners Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”), Christian Bale (“Vice”) and Michael Keaton (“Birdman”) are among those who lost their Oscars despite being perceived as a “no-brainer.”
Many pundits expected Amy Madigan to win supporting actress for “Weapons,” but questions remain about whether the Oscars are willing to reward a genre performance (especially one this great), and particularly if she emerges as the film’s only nominee. If “Armas” does not achieve any additional nominations, such as casting or original screenplay, history may be unforgiving for those performers. Penélope Cruz’s victory for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (2008) is the most recent example of a single nominee winning in the supporting actress category, and that required a rare category change by Kate Winslet from supporting to leading role in “The Reader,” which swept all the precursors. Before that, remember Marisa Tomei in “My Cousin Vinny” (1992), who was a surprise nominee that day (and an even more shocking winner on Oscar night). These are the exceptions, not the rules.
By all of these somewhat vague measurements, there’s still room for another contender (or two) to emerge. And with Oscar voting beginning Monday morning, next week may matter more than any previous ceremony.