At any moment, in the middle of the South China Sea, a literal war could break out. High-pressure water cannons, naval ramming, and high-seas fighting have already become commonplace, and a much larger conflict is just a mistake away.
But it didn’t have to be that way.
A decade ago, in July 2016, an arbitral tribunal in The Hague issued a ruling in a landmark case pitting the Philippines against China over their competing claims over the South China Sea. The verdict was a bombshell.
Under the United Nations Law of the Sea, five judges ruled that most of China’s claims to vast expanses of the South China Sea were invalid, handing a major victory to the Philippines.
Beijing dismissed the verdict as “nothing more than a piece of paper.”
A decade later, China has not backed down one bit from its illegal claims. If anything, the Chinese coast guard is more aggressive than ever. It continues to harass both Philippine coast guard vessels and regular fishermen with water cannons, military-grade lasers and even ramming attempts. The South China Sea remains one of the most dangerous flashpoints in Asia.
This begs the question: What did the verdict actually accomplish? And was one of the biggest international lawsuits in history just a huge waste of time?
