By Vikram Subburaj
The pause in the US-Iran conflict on April 8 has triggered a coordinated reassessment in global markets. The sequence appears in the data. Brent crude fell to $91.7-$94.4 per barrel, marking a one-day decline of about 14-16%. The US dollar index fell about 1.0-1.1% to around 98.8. This was its lowest level in four weeks. US equities rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising 2.4% and 2.9%, respectively.
Bitcoin follows macro
Bitcoin has followed rather than led this macro adjustment. Prices hovered around $71,575-$71,927 on the day. This was a gain of around 4.5-4.8%. The alignment seems pretty straightforward. Oil has softened, the dollar has weakened and the prices of risk assets are high again.
Start of revaluation
In this cycle the transmission starts with oil. The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of global oil flows. Brent’s move to the $91-$94 range represents a sharp reduction in disruption risks. This is the starting point for the current revaluation in all markets.
That shift has contributed to inflation expectations and, in turn, the pricing of rates. Market-implied prospects now show the likelihood of keeping rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% through December 2026, down from 77.4% to about 53.6%. The probability of a cut has increased by 25 basis points from 16.7% to about 35.2%. The probability of a cut of 50 basis points or larger increases from 1.1% to about 10.4%.
tight dependency
Dependence remains tight. These rate expectations are based on oil remaining within the $90-$95 band. A rise in Brent above $100 would recreate inflationary impulses and quickly reprice these prospects. The money market reflects the same adjustment. The dollar index is at around 98.8 after falling nearly 1% in a day, pointing to a partial easing in global liquidity conditions. Bitcoin moving into the $71,500-$71,900 range alongside the rise in US equities suggests that the crypto is currently responding to this liquidity shift rather than crypto-specific demand.
Institutional flows have not yet confirmed the price movement. The US Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows of $471.4 million on April 6. On April 7, the inflows reversed to a net outflow of about $159.1 million. The swing from +$471.4 million to -$159.1 million within one session shows that the situation has not stabilized.
clear market boundaries
Overall, the market is operating within clearly defined limits. Oil is between $91-$94. The dollar index is around 98.8. ETF flows have ranged between +$471.4 million and -$159.1 million over the two sessions. Bitcoin is trading in the $71,500-$71,900 band. The hurdle is continuity. Strong inflows in a single day followed by immediate outflows indicate that institutional participation is still adjusting to macro signals rather than consolidating price levels.
What happens next depends on whether this adjustment develops into a sustained state or not. Oil, dollar and ETF flows should align, and certainly not move in isolation. Keeping Brent below $95 will keep inflation pressures under control. A dollar index below 100 will support liquidity conditions. Most importantly, ETF flows have to remain consistently positive across all sessions. Until that alignment appears, the current move reflects a macro-driven revaluation within a range rather than a definite directional shift.
Vikram Subburaj is the CEO of Giottus.com, a technology entrepreneur and crypto advocate focused on democratizing access to digital assets. An alumnus of BITS Pilani and IIM Calcutta, he combines entrepreneurial agility with strategic development, leading product strategy, customer experience and market expansion at Giotas.
