Amazon Q4 Earnings Today: Amazon Stock Moves: Amazon Q4 Earnings Today: This Is What Will Decide Amazon Stock Moves Today? & more related news here

Amazon’s Q4 earnings today: Amazon heads into its Q4 2025 earnings report with one concrete number dominating the debate: $211.5 billion. That’s the revenue figure Wall Street expects when the company reports after the closing bell on February 5, 2026according to consensus estimates. If delivered, it would end a year that pushes Amazon past 700 billion dollars in annual revenue for the first time in its history, consolidating its position as the world’s largest consumer technology and cloud platform by sales.

However, the shares have not celebrated. While the widest S&P 500 has steadily risen, Amazon shares have traded sideways since November, hovering around $238. The disconnection reflects investor discontent. Growth is no longer the issue. The cost is. Specifically, the cost of winning the AI ​​race.

Amazon’s capital spending increased to 125 billion dollars in 2025driven largely by data centers, custom chips and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Management has already warned that spending will increase again in 2026.

Amazon stock’s biggest surplus remains capital spending. The company raised its 2025 capex forecast of $125 billiona sharp increase over previous years, and executives have already guided toward higher spending in 2026. Some analyst models now assume more than 150 billion dollars next year.

Options markets are pricing a approximately 7% move in Amazon shares after the publication of results. From recent levels near $238, that implies an increase towards $255 to $260or downward towards $222 to $230. Technically, the stock has traded within a symmetrical triangle since reaching an all-time high of $258 in November, a pattern often associated with sharp breakouts.

Wall Street remains generally positive. Data collected by Visible alpha sample 21 of 22 analysts rate Amazon as a buywith a close average target price $298involving more than 25% advantage. recent notes from bank of america, wedbushand Citi highlight confidence in the strength of Christmas retail, advertising momentum and continued expansion of AWS.

Amazon’s Q4 2025 Earnings Estimates Set Record Revenue Milestone

Wall Street expects Amazon to report Fourth quarter revenue between $211.3 billion and $211.6 billionwhich implies approximately 13% year-over-year growth. That would be within the company’s own guidance range of between $206 billion and $213 billion and would mark the strongest quarter in Amazon’s history. Earnings per share are projected at $1.97 to $1.98compared to $1.86 the previous year, a more modest figure 6% increase that reflects the increased depreciation and infrastructure costs tied to building AI. The quarter captures the full impact of the holiday shopping season, Prime Big Deal Days, and early monetization of cloud AI and advertising. Analysts expect retail volumes to remain resilient despite pressure from low-cost rivals, while companies with higher margins do more of the heavy lifting to turn a profit. Advertising is expected to see another seasonal increase after the release. Growth of 24% to $17.7 billion in the third quarter.

If estimates hold, Amazon’s trailing-twelve-month revenue will exceed $700 billiona psychological and financial threshold that few companies in history have reached. But investors aren’t paying a premium just for milestones. They are assessing risk related to spending discipline and long-term free cash flow.

The focus will be on profits first Amazon Web Services. AWS is expected to deliver around $35 billion in fourth quarter revenuerepresenting Year-on-year growth of 21% to 22%. That pace would confirm the reacceleration that began in mid-2025 after a slowdown driven by customer cost optimization in 2023 and early 2024.

AWS contributes about a fifth of Amazon’s revenue, but a much larger proportion of operating income. Investors want confirmation that growth above 20% is sustainable through 2026. They are also watching how quickly Amazon converts its reported revenue. Delay of 200 billion dollars in revenue recognized as AI workloads increase.

A critical substory is Amazon’s push toward custom silicon. The company is promoting its own train and inference chips as lower-cost alternatives to GPUs supplied by NVIDIA. Management has said these chips can significantly improve margins for AI training and inference at scale. One of the first tests came from anthropicwhich supposedly reached almost 500,000 Trainium Tokens.

Why Options Markets Expect a Big Move in Amazon Stock After Earnings

Options pricing has become one of the clearest indicators of how volatile a stock could be post-earnings, and Amazon’s current setup stands out. Traders are pricing in an implied move of nearly 7% by the end of the week, indicating expectations of a significant reaction once the numbers are released.

This implied swing is larger than Amazon’s typical post-earnings move and reflects the stock’s lofty valuation and strategic crossroads. A positive surprise in revenue growth or operating margins could trigger a breakout, especially given how closely linked Amazon is to broader themes such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence infrastructure and the strength of consumer spending. At the same time, any sign of slowing AWS growth or rising costs could prompt a quick sale.

Market sensitivity is amplified by Amazon’s size and influence. As one of the largest companies in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, Amazon’s profits often reverberate throughout the technology sector. Cloud peers, retail competitors, and even hardware vendors tied to AI may see knock-on effects depending on how Amazon’s results are interpreted.

Layoffs, cost controls and what Wall Street wants to hear next

Amazon’s earnings forecast will also be affected by recent workforce reductions. The company has announced plans to eliminate approximately 16,000 jobs, following the elimination of 14,000 positions in October. Combined, these moves represent the largest round of layoffs in Amazon’s history and underscore management’s drive to streamline operations.

Investors will be watching for details on how these cuts translate into cost savings and improved margins. Amazon has long been criticized for prioritizing growth over profitability, and the market is now demanding clearer evidence that efficiency is becoming a central focus.

Despite these concerns, analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive. Of the analysts tracked by Visible Alpha, 21 rate Amazon stock a “buy,” while only one recommends holding the stock. The average price target sits near $298, implying an upside of over 25% from current levels if Amazon executes successfully.

For now, Amazon’s earnings represent more than just a quarterly update. They are a referendum on whether the company can balance aggressive investment in AI, disciplined cost control and steady consumer demand, all while justifying one of the most closely watched valuations in the market.

Frequently asked questions:

1. Why is Amazon stock expected to be volatile after earnings?

Options markets are pricing in a possible 7% move in Amazon stock just days away from earnings. That implies a change of approximately $16 per share from current levels near $238. Volatility reflects uncertainty around AWS growth, AI spending, and margin trends. Earnings guidance will likely determine direction.

2. What revenue and profit figures do Amazon analysts expect?

Wall Street estimates fourth-quarter revenue will approach $211.5 billion, up nearly 13% year over year. Earnings per share are projected at around $1.97, compared to $1.86 last year. Investors are focused less on overall growth and more on operating margin expansion.

3. How important is AWS performance to this earnings report?

AWS accounts for the majority of Amazon’s operating income despite accounting for a smaller proportion of revenue. Last quarter, stronger-than-expected AWS growth boosted earnings. Any slowdown in cloud demand or weaker AI-related bookings could put pressure on the stock immediately.

4. Do layoffs at Amazon indicate deeper financial problems?

Amazon plans to eliminate approximately 16,000 jobs, following 14,000 layoffs in October. Management says the cuts are aimed at cost discipline, not revenue weakness. Investors want confirmation that savings will improve margins without hurting long-term growth.