BEIJING (AP) — Over the years, a regular Chinese campaign of sending war planes flying to Taiwan, the autonomous island it claims as its territory, has raised alarm from Taipei to Washington.
Now, a sharp drop in the number of flights in the last two weeks has analysts wondering what China’s army can be up to par. And that mystery carries risks, said former US defense official Drew Thompson.
“There are so many theories and the lack of understanding of China’s intentions is what is baffling,” said Thompson, now a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “You fill the void with uncertainty, and uncertainty increases risk.”
Flights suspended for 7 days in a row
The drop in flights started earlier, but the latest drop has been particularly dramatic.
Taiwan Ministry of Defense issues daily reports on the Chinese air force and naval activity around the island. Most often, the recent ones do not include the usual map with flight routes, because no flights were detected.
Taiwan did not report any Chinese military aircraft in an area known as its Air Defense Identification Zone for a week from February 27 to March 5. And after two were detected on March 6, the next four days there were none.
Flights have resumed in small numbers over the past two days, three on Wednesday and two on Thursday. That brought the total for the past two weeks to seven. In the same period last year, there were 92.
The reasons could be political.
The fall coincided with the annual meeting of China’s legislature, and such flights have decreased in the past during important events and holidays. But this year’s drop was much greater than in the past.
“That alone would not be the only or main reason for incursions to drop to zero,” K. Tristan Tang, a nonresident fellow at the National Asian Research Bureau based in Taipei, said in an email response.
Another factor could be the desire to calm the waters with Washington two weeks before. a visit by US President Donald Trump. The White House has said Trump would travel to China from March 31 to April 2.
Thompson, however, noted that the Taiwan issue is not what matters to the American president.
“Trump sees China as an economic negotiation, not a security challenge,” he said.
The United States opposes any attempt to change Taiwan’s status by force, as an invasion by China, which says the democratic island of 23 million people must remain under its control in the future.
Military considerations
Tang believes the decline in flights may be due to a shift to a next phase in China’s military training and modernization.
The Army appears to be exploring a new joint training model between its air force and navy and possibly its ground forces, it said in its response.
That exploratory activity would likely take place outside of Taiwan to avoid being monitored by other countries, he said, which could explain why there are fewer Chinese aircraft in the area.
Taiwan does not let its guard down
Taiwan’s military has signaled that it is not changing its defensive posture due to the drop in Chinese fighter jet activity.
Defense Minister Wellington Koo noted that the Chinese navy has remained active in nearby waters even as military flights have slowed.
“As I have said before, we cannot rely solely on a single symptom, such as the absence of PLA aircraft, to make a judgment,” he told reporters. The PLA is an acronym for the official name of the Chinese military, the People’s Liberation Army.
“We will continue to closely monitor the PLA’s movements,” he said.
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Kanis Leung reported from Hong Kong. Johnson Lai contributed to this report from Taipei, Taiwan.
