Pune: Large parts of Maharashtra are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the week ending July 30, with conditions expected to improve to near-normal levels in the following week, the latest extended range forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated on Saturday. The outlook, however, does not indicate an active and widespread monsoon phase during the first days of August.The extended range forecast indicated that monsoon rains would continue across the state for the next fortnight, but Maharashtra was unlikely to experience a significant active phase. Konkan and the Western Ghats were expected to remain the wettest regions due to orographic rainfall, while the interior areas of Madhya Maharashtra and Marathwada were likely to receive comparatively lesser rainfall, especially till the end of July, it said.
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At the national level, the IMD has forecast normal to above normal rainfall from July 23 to 29 in most parts of southern Rajasthan, western and central India and several regions of eastern India, while the rest of the country is likely to receive below normal rainfall. For the next week (July 30 to August 5), overall rainfall across the country is expected to remain normal, with near normal to above normal rainfall over much of southern peninsular India and several parts of eastern and central India. Below normal rainfall is forecast in the rest of the regions.IMD-Pune scientist SD Sanap said Maharashtra is likely to remain in the normal to below normal rainfall category during the first week of August, with no indication of a widespread active monsoon spell. “The anomaly maps for the second week largely show white patches over Maharashtra. There are no orange or red hues, indicating that rainfall is expected to remain in the normal or below normal category,” Sanap said, adding that the final forecast for August would be issued later this month.He said a new low pressure zone formed over the Bay of Bengal on Saturday, but it was unlikely to have a significant impact on Maharashtra. “The system is expected to increase rainfall mainly along parts of the west coast. Orange alerts are in place for some coastal districts, while heavy rain warnings have been issued for the ghats of Pune till Sunday. Pune city and adjoining areas are likely to receive only light rain, while isolated places in the ghats could witness very heavy or extremely heavy rain,” he said.Sanap also pointed out the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) as a key factor behind the weak monsoon outlook. The MJO, an eastward-moving pulse of tropical rainfall that influences the Indian monsoon, remains in Phase 8, which is generally considered unfavorable for widespread rainfall activity.
