According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), global production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to reach approximately 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, accounting for just 0.8% of total aviation fuel consumption, highlighting the scale of the challenge facing the airline industry’s net-zero ambitions.IATA estimates airlines will spend about $4.3 billion on SAF this year, even though production remains well below the level needed to meet the sector’s long-term decarbonization targets.“This appears to be another disappointing year for SAF production. Five years after achieving net zero by 2050, SAF production will account for only 0.8% of airline fuel use this year. The path to meeting 65% of our needs in 2050 is becoming more difficult every year with ineffectively sorted government policies and lack of interest from oil companies,” IATA Director General Willie Walsh said, as quoted by ANI.Walsh said the current energy crisis should accelerate investment in renewable fuels, but policy support is inadequate.He said, “The current energy shock should bring even greater urgency to the development of renewable energy, including SAF. But we are not yet seeing either the energy shock, the need to develop energy independence and jobs, or the urgency of mitigating climate change needed to create the incentives needed to create a viable SAF market.”According to IATA, accelerating SAF production will require coordinated action across four key priorities.These include expanding renewable energy supply to ensure adequate feedstock and clean energy for SAF production, guaranteeing open access to fuel infrastructure such as pipelines, storage facilities and airport fuel systems, strengthening production incentives and investment frameworks, and enabling the global SAF market with commercially viable pricing.IATA said, “A book-and-claims system is essential to transform the SAF market from local to global, making it accessible to airlines and SAF producers regardless of their domicile. A global SAF market should also be supported by harmonized standards that create sustainable rules and fair competition.”The industry body said Electro-SAF or e-SAF will also play an increasingly important role in aviation’s decarbonization efforts.Produced through a power-to-liquid process using renewable electricity, green hydrogen, water and carbon dioxide, e-SAF is seen as an important long-term solution to reducing aviation emissions.However, IATA warned that production capacity lagged far behind policy ambitions.The European Union and the United Kingdom have mandated approximately 0.6 million tonnes of e-SAF production by 2030, but global operating and under construction capacity is currently only 0.02 million tonnes, with only one production facility operational.According to IATA, approximately 20 commercial-scale refineries would be needed to meet the mandated volumes, yet no new final investment decisions for e-SAF projects have been announced in the past year.“The 2030 E-SAF targets set by the UK and EU are beyond unrealistic – they are completely disconnected from reality. Imposing mandates before production is enabled is a reckless energy market creation strategy. Such a strategy will only drive up the price. “Combined with penalties, this prevents scarce resources from being allocated to real CO2 emissions reductions,” said Mary Owens Thomson, IATA senior vice president sustainability and chief economist.“Given that renewable energy prices in Europe are among the highest in the world, this strategy is also surprising. A serious strategy would firstly scale up renewable energy production to drive down its price and build e-SAF production capacity based on strong economics. Only at that point can the mandate achieve the desired results,” Thomson said.IATA’s latest passenger survey, conducted in April 2026, showed strong support for aviation decarbonization efforts.According to the survey, 89% of passengers believe the aviation industry should continue reducing emissions, even if governments roll back their climate initiatives. A similar proportion said air travel remains essential and should be made sustainable rather than restricted.The survey also found that about 66% of passengers are willing to pay more to offset emissions, while about 88% expect ticket prices to increase due to sustainability investments.Travelers also prioritized direct decarbonization measures. About 25% supported directing funds to SAF development and 23% supported emissions-reduction technologies, while only 10% preferred environmental taxes.Sustainability is also increasingly influencing consumer choices. Nearly half of travelers said they consider carbon emissions when choosing flights, and of those who do, more than 85% said emissions data influences their decisions.
