Welcome to week 26 of The AthleticThe Premier League predictions challenge, where I’m starting to feel like one of the Wet Bandits, Home Alone’s hapless villains, outwitted by a child at every turn.
Everything was going very well. I was at the top of the table, not so pleased but relieved to be on my way to escaping this thankless exercise with a shred of credibility intact by proving that I was better at predicting football results than an algorithm, readers and, obviously, a six-year-old.
But little Wilfred, like Kevin McCallister in the movie, had other ideas. Not only did he knock me off the top of the table last week, but he was also the top scorer again, adding another 11 points over the weekend to my measly four.
And now I am not only eight points behind Wilfred, but I am also in danger of being overtaken by season ticket holders, for whom Arsenal fan Peter from Dublin, Ireland, scored seven points.
Every week since the season started in August, four of us (a guest subscriber, an algorithm, Wilfred and myself) have been predicting the Premier League results.
We give three points for a correct score and one for a correct result. There is also a bonus point for any “single” correct prediction, so Wilfred got four points for those two correct results (Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa and Wolves 1-3 Chelsea) because no one else matched them.
Peter also scored four for subscribers by predicting Manchester United’s 2-0 win against Tottenham.
So Wilfred is now at the top, the subscribers have their sights on me and the only consolation I can draw is that the algorithm is stuck at the bottom of the table, having The draws are over for the doomed Wolves and Burnley on Saturday.
It is interesting to note that there were two games at the weekend where we were all going for the same score (Leeds 1-1 Nottingham Forest and Arsenal 2-0 Sunderland)… and we were all wrong, although the last score was correct until the 94th minute.
Anyway, we’re back. This week’s guest subscriber is James, a 27-year-old Manchester United fan from Norwich.. Good luck, James.
Our subscribers’ match of the week
West Ham vs Manchester United, Tuesday, 8:15pm UK/3:15pm ET
James says: “Four hundred and ninety-three days. I have never before been more excited that someone could get a haircut. However, Man United have their work cut out for them, against an improving and stylistically well-matched West Ham side. I hope Man United’s set-piece dominance decides this, but not before some nervous moments.”
West Ham 1-2 Manchester United
Oli says: “Exciting moments for Manchester United fans after four straight wins, and none more so than Frank Ilett, their Spain-based fan who has gone viral after declaring in October 2024 that he wouldn’t cut his hair until they won five games in a row. I wonder if there’s a part of Ilett that secretly hopes they come up short tonight. He’s now up to 1.2 million followers on Instagram and just under a million on TikTok. And his club’s future doesn’t change. “It will be decided by whether they win five games in a row, but they are playing well with Michael Carrick and the fifth game is away from West Ham, so it could be time for Frank to contact the best sheep shearer in all of Castellón.”
West Ham 0-2 Manchester United
Carrick is off to a great start as Manchester United interim head coach (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
Oli’s other predictions
Chelsea-Leeds
How good is it to see Cole Palmer enjoying himself again? His first two goals against Wolves on Saturday were from penalties, but I loved the timing of his career and the confidence in his finish in the third. Leeds won’t give Chelsea much space but, with Palmer and Joao Pedro coming into form, I imagine a close home win.
Chelsea-Leeds 2-1
Everton-Bournemouth
I’m struggling to understand Everton. It’s not just the difference between Everton at home (poor) and Everton away (excellent). Ultimately, as Patrick Boyland writes here, it’s also the difference between first-half Everton (poor) and second-half Everton (excellent). They are riding their luck at the moment, but a little momentum and positivity could see them claim their first home win since December 6.
Everton 1-0 Bournemouth
Tottenham-Newcastle
George Caulkin describes this season’s Newcastle as “soft”, so how should we view this fixture? The Softico? Does an irresistant force encounter an immaterial object? There is a real vulnerability in both of these teams at the moment, but I will say with some hesitation that I find it easier to imagine a Newcastle win. Or perhaps what I find easiest to imagine is a Tottenham defeat and the howls of derision that would follow the final whistle.
Tottenham 1-2 Newcastle
Aston Villa-Brighton
Villa’s title challenge has run out after just two wins in seven games. The challenge now is to ensure their quest for Champions League qualification does not turn into a dogfight. This seems like a good opportunity to start over. Brighton have only won once (against Burnley) in 12 Premier League games and, as Andy Naylor describes here, there is growing discontent from the stands towards head coach Fabian Hurzeler. When it comes to stopping rot, there are no obvious solutions.
Aston Villa 2-0 Brighton
Crystal Palace vs Burnley
After a much-needed win at Brighton on Sunday, can Palace rediscover a much-needed sense of optimism and direction? Probably. Their next four games – Burnley and Wolves at home in the Premier League and a two-legged UEFA Conference League tie against HSK Zrinjski of Bosnia and Herzegovina to decide who advances to the last 16 – appear to offer an opportunity to gain momentum. Burnley played well at times at home against West Ham on Saturday, but it never seemed to be enough.
Crystal Palace 2-0 Burnley
Manchester City-Fulham
Do you know what I liked most about City’s victory against Liverpool on Sunday? Bernardo Silva was quick to retrieve the ball from the net after the equalizer in the 84th minute and hit it at the center point, ready to shoot again. Their performance in the second half had been poor up to that point (with honorable exceptions such as Gianluigi Donnarumma, Marc Guehi, Matheus Nunes and Bernardo), but the City captain was determined to show his teammates and his opponents (and perhaps Arsenal) that they were ready to go for the victory, which of course they achieved.
If they can beat Fulham tonight to reduce the deficit at the top to three points, Arsenal will feel the pressure at Brentford on Thursday.
Manchester City 2-0 Fulham
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves
What a horrible season it has been for these two clubs. Wolves have resigned themselves to relegation and Forest have not been in the bottom five since mid-September. I still think they’ve started to turn a corner, but then comes another weak loss. This is, on paper, the easiest game of the season, but Nothing seems easy for Forest at the moment.
Nottingham Forest 1-0 Wolves
Sunderland 2-2 Liverpool
The first thing that comes to mind when I watch this game is… the beach ball. Many of you will know exactly what I mean, but I’m surprised that some of you, who may not have followed the Premier League in 2009, will be wondering what the hell I’m doing. It’s a crazy story, which was reviewed 10 years later by The AthleticHere’s James Pearce. Still, this is precisely the kind of game that Sunderland players and supporters have enjoyed this season, and precisely the kind of game that Liverpool, after another last-gasp defeat on Sunday, may not enjoy.
Sunderland 2-2 Liverpool
Brentford-Arsenal
In the modern Premier League landscape, this has become what Blackburn Rovers or Bolton Wanderers were to Arsenal’s great title-winning teams of the early 2000s. Brentford will test the leaders in a variety of ways (long throw-ins, corner kicks, quick counterattacks) that make them the most uncomfortable opponents in the Premier League. The schedule means Arsenal’s lead, which was nine points on Saturday night, could be just three when it kicks off on Thursday. It points towards an ugly and painful game with long delays before each set piece. Unusual for a leading team, Arsenal might like that.
Brentford 1-2 Arsenal
