Preview: Santos vs San Lorenzo – prediction, team news, lineups & more related news here

Santos hosts San Lorenzo on Wednesday in the fifth round of the 2026 Copa Sudamericana, knowing that only a victory will keep their hopes of topping Group D alive.

The teams met previously on the third day and tied 1-1. Another close fight is expected, especially with Santos facing major injury concerns. Neymar, who was recently called up by Ancelotti for the national team, is a big doubt.

Match preview

Santos faces San Lorenzo again, this time in Vila Belmiro. The situation is similar to the first match, with Santos likely to be without key players, especially Neymar, who suffered a right calf injury against Coritiba and is unlikely to be fit.

In the first match, in Buenos Aires, Santos fell behind but tied before half-time: Cuello opened the scoring in the 27th minute before Gabriel Barbosa (Gabigol) made it 1-1 five minutes later.

Santos, which is at the bottom of Group D, has only three points from four games: three draws and one defeat. A win could put them in a more favorable position, potentially as high as second or first depending on goal difference and other results. Therefore, the pressure is immense; only a victory keeps their qualification hopes alive for the final round.

The internal panorama is equally worrying. Santos suffered a 3-0 defeat against Coritiba in the last matcha match marked by controversy involving Neymar. The number 10 was substituted by mistake after the fourth referee confused the number shown by the coaching staff: it should have been Gonzalo Escobar who came out, but Neymar’s number was shown instead. The result left Santos in 16th place Brazilian with 18 points, equal with Corinthians, which occupies the relegation zone.

In the midst of the turbulence, Neymar recently received good news: Carlo Ancelotti called him up for the 2026 World Cup, putting an end to one of the biggest debates surrounding the Brazil team. The announcement was made at the Museu do Amanha in Rio de Janeiro, in a ceremony organized by the CBF and attended by around 1,200 guests, including former players, executives, artists, influencers and politicians, an unprecedented format for a call for a national team.

© Iconsport / Néstor J. Beremblum / Alamy

San Lorenzo arrives at Vila Belmiro as the leader of Group D with six points and enjoying a much more comfortable position. Since only the best team advances directly to the round of 16, a draw keeps the Argentines in a good position heading into the final round. The pressure is firmly on Santos: while San Lorenzo can afford to be cautious, Santos must take risks.

However, San Lorenzo’s recent national form adds another layer. They were eliminated from the 2026 Apertura Tournament by River Plate on penalties after a 2-2 draw in the round of 16. That setback could dent their confidence or motivate them to secure first place in the group.

Both Santos and San Lorenzo have struggled in attack at times this season, which has led to close games with few goals. Their recent head-to-head history reflects this: their last encounter ended 1-1 in the current Sudamericana campaign, while their previous encounter saw a 2-2 draw in the 2021 Copa Libertadores in Brasilia.

For San Lorenzo a draw would be a valuable result. For Santos, however, it is not enough: playing at home, they must win to keep their qualification hopes alive.

Santos Copa Sudamericana form:

Santos form (all competitions):

Form of San Lorenzo Copa Sudamericana:

San Lorenzo form (all competitions):

Team news

© Imago / Sports press photo

Alexi Stival faces a selection headache. The main concern is Neymar, who is suffering from a right calf injury and is not expected to start. Luan Peres is also ruled out after receiving a ball in the face; The center back will follow a strict recovery protocol before returning to training.

Gustavo Henrique, recently recovered from an injury, once again felt pain in his right thigh and was substituted, which makes him a new doubt. Escobar is in a similar situation: he felt pain in the back of his left thigh and asked to leave, but due to a referee error he remained on the field of play until full time despite being injured.

San Lorenzo also has important absences. Luciano Vietto is sidelined with a tendon injury, while Gastón Hernández suffered an ACL injury and is not expected to return until the end of the year. Cerutti and Nahuel Arias complete the visitors’ injured list.

Possible starting lineup for Santos:

Brazao; Igor Vinicius, Verissimo, Frías, Ananías; Willian Arao, Christian Oliva, Bontempo; Rollheiser, Gabigol, Barreal

Possible starting lineup for San Lorenzo:

Gill; Herrera, Romana, Montenegro; Tripichio, Insaurralde, Rattalino, De Ritis; Neck, Auzmendi, Neighborhoods

We say: Santos 1-1 San Lorenzo

A draw seems the most likely outcome, especially considering the recent matchup between these teams. Santos themselves recently suffered a streak of five consecutive draws, showing a team capable of creating and scoring but also prone to conceding. That trend points to another low-scoring game—two goals at most—as has been the case in five of Santos’ last six games.

San Lorenzo shows a similar pattern, having reached the market for both teams to score in three of their last four games, which reinforces the expectation of goals at both ends. After an elimination in the national cup, they arrive with less confidence, but their comfortable position in the group can encourage a controlled approach. The most likely scenario, therefore, is similar to that of the first match: a 1-1 draw.

For a data analysis of the most likely outcomes, scores and more for this match, click here.

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