The best UFC bets, top DFS picks from multiple sites and predictions for this weekend’s UFC Baku are available on RotoWire ahead of Saturday’s international event.
UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks and Fixtures for UFC Baku – Fiziev vs. Towers
The UFC travels to Azerbaijan for a 13-fight card featuring several live underdogs. We’ll take a look at each fight across three platforms, including an explosive bantamweight with power in his hands and a flyweight looking to propel himself into the title picture. Our betting lines this week are courtesy of the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of this article’s publication date.
UFC plays to consider at DraftKings
Javier Reyes’ style has a distinctly regional feel, as his size likely allowed him to advance with his hands down and intimidate his opponents. This mentality nearly left him knocked out against 40-year-old Douglas Silva de Andrade, and Ofli will constantly apply pressure in search of takedowns. Ofli may not have the stopping power of someone like Andrade, but he will put Reyes through a grueling fight if “Blair” can’t find an early finish.
Aliskerov is putting his knockout loss to Robert Whittaker more in the rearview mirror with each performance, using his agility, grappling and sick striking to control his opponents. Brunno Ferreira has enough power to stop any middleweight in his tracks, but I expect the Dagestani fighter to dictate terms with his jab before turning to wrestling, as Abus Magomedov was able to take down “The Hulk” four times before submitting him in 2024.
Sadykhov struggled mightily with Fares Ziam’s length and grappling ability, but had a good chance to bounce back against Matheus Camilo. While he will fight, Camilo is nowhere near Ziam’s level of control, which should allow Sadykhov to stay on his feet or get ahead in fights. Ultimately, Sadykhov should try to stay at a distance, where he can use his quick hands and power to hurt Camilo while looking for the perfect hit.
Johnson’s slow starts have been his downfall lately, as he tends to take heavy hits early, making his success dependent on whether he can recover. There should be no such problem against Asu Almabayev, who can charitably call the blow as a means to start his fight. Johnson has worked hard on his wrestling defense and is now a strong wrestler who hasn’t been taken down more than once since his fight with Azat Maksum in 2024. I also wouldn’t be surprised if “InnerG” tried to initiate his own takedowns, as Almabayev has a defense rate of just 44 percent.
Yakhyaev’s chaotic style will probably have him hitting a wall at some point, but I wouldn’t expect that to happen against Julius Walker, who looks to initiate fight sequences as soon as possible. Walker is highly unlikely to outperform Yakyhyaev, and he remains so upright while in space that it wouldn’t be surprising if “Hunter” found his chin.
Nascimento and Tahir Abdullaev are as evenly matched as their salaries imply, but I’m leaning slightly toward the Brazilian because of his speed and aggressiveness. Abdullaev likes to use his footwork to stay safe in punching exchanges, but Nascimento’s jiu-jitsu should work to neutralize “Tank’s” hold, leaving him with a distance advantage.
Theodor Berggren has a good jab that could initially cause Donchenko problems, but the difference in speed and power here should be more than enough to offset any technical advantage. Brerggren’s ideal fight is a measured kickboxing fight where he can feel out the opponent, but Donchenko won’t, peppering the lanky fighter with leg kicks and body shots until the fight is over.
Eric Nolan presents such a good variety of strikes that I almost picked him against the debutant, but ultimately I think Hasanov’s wrestling is going to be too much, as he is much more insistent on taking the fight to the ground than someone like Baisangur Susurkaev, who was able to submit Nolan shortly after putting him on the ground.
Try these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations in our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider at PrizePicks
Michel Pereira MORE THAN 41.5 significant strikes and Andrey Pulyaev LESS than 32.5 significant strikes
With his high-movement style and solid 71 percent takedown defense, Shara Magomedov tends to draw fighters into slow-paced kickboxing matches. I expect Pereira to be ahead against a retreating “Bullet” for most of the fight, which should help him rack up significant strikes.
Both Pulyaev and Nursulton Ruziboev generally benefit from being the taller fighters, but with just an inch of separation, neither will be able to control the distance. I expect the early exchanges to produce a collision between two fighters with 19 combined knockout wins, which should lead to a finish.
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UFC bets to consider
We’ve seen Almakhan struggle with wrestlers, but Jean Matsumoto’s constant forward pressure has seen him take a whopping 5.41 significant strikes per minute. Almakhan is too fast and powerful for an opponent to rush in to attack, and I have to imagine another camp dedicated to wrestling defense will produce improvements when it comes to Bekzat staying on his feet.
An inability to pull the trigger characterized Rafael Fiziev’s performance against Mauricio Ruffy, as the Russian fighter almost expected his Brazilian counterpart to find the perfect shot while leaning against the cage. Against Torres, Fiziev will once again face height and reach disadvantages while having to deal with a devastatingly accurate puncher.
The fight between Oleksiejczuk and Abus Magomedov is truly binary in terms of outcome, as we are left to decide whether an Oleksiejczuk knockout or a Magomedov submission will occur first. The problem is that Magomedov in fights against Sean Strickland and Joe Pyfer has been shown to have a round of struggle before becoming a stationary target in front of his opponent. “Lord” has shown better takedown defense lately and should have the speed and power to hurt Abus in the early exchanges.
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