With England in the semi-finals and Sri Lanka out, the battle for second place in the Group 2 semi-finals is between New Zealand and Pakistan. The comprehensive 61-run victory against Sri Lanka makes New Zealand the favorites to qualify, but given the huge margin of victory in the Super Eight phase so far, Pakistan cannot be ruled out just yet.
New Zealand will end all qualifying permutations if they beat England at the same venue on Friday. Not only will they qualify, but they will also top the group with five points and will therefore face the second placed team in Group 1 in the semi-finals. That result will also ensure that both semi-finals take place in India.
However, if England win that match, they will top the group with six points and also keep Pakistan in the fight, although Pakistan will have to overcome a fairly significant NRR disadvantage.
If, for example, England score 180 and beat New Zealand by 30 runs on Friday, Pakistan They will have to beat Sri Lanka by 40 runs (assuming the same total in the first innings). In other words, the sum of the result margins of those two matches must be around 70 runs. If New Zealand bats first, scores 150 and England chases in 17 overs, then Pakistan, chasing the same target against Sri Lanka, will have to reach their target in around 14.4 overs to overtake New Zealand.
The next two group matches will not only decide the second semi-finalists, but also the venue for the first semi-final: if New Zealand qualify, the first semi-final will be held in Calcutta, but if Pakistan qualify, Colombo will have the hosting rights.
