Australia and New Zealand sit firmly inside that pattern. Cofess economist for Australia and New Zealand, Apolline Griveldinger (pictured centre), said persistent Middle East tensions were adding to inflation pressures and the risk of a strong tightening cycle from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) – raising higher borrowing costs which would feed straight back into local insolvency numbers. The sensitivity she describes is not unique to Canberra: Coface has warned globally that a 25-basis-point increase in business loan rates, which the market is already pricing in, would be enough to push bankruptcy growth back to 4% to 5% in 2026, wiping out the fragile recession currently forecast. The IMF, for its part, has flagged worsening conditions in parts of emerging Asia and the Middle East – exactly the buyer markets where Australian, New Zealand, European and North American exporters are shipping. For brokers, this is the context with which every trade credit conversation now begins: a buyer universe that is weakening simultaneously in almost every major export market.
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