Even as the Economic Survey outlines the factors behind the rise in gold prices over the past year, the spot price of gold on the Indian Multi Commodity Exchange fell 4.87% from Rs 1,75,231 to Rs 1,67,095 on Friday (January 30, 2026). Some of the top gold exchange-traded funds, such as Axis Gold ETF, Union Gold ETF and 360 One Gold ETF fell at least 10% each.
Let’s explore the Economic Survey’s insights into rising gold prices and whether the yellow metal’s price rally will sustain over the next year.
Why did gold prices soar to record rates in 2025?
According to the Economic Survey, gold prices jumped from $2,607 to $4,315 per ounce in 2025. As of January 26, 2026, the gold price per ounce was $5,101.34. This increase was attributed to the weakening of the US dollar, continued expectations of negative real rates, and growing market concerns about geopolitical and financial tail risks.
When we checked the spot gold prices on the Indian Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the gold price on January 30, 2025 was Rs 81,028 and it shot up to Rs 1,75,231 on January 29, 2026, giving a whopping 116% return to its investors in a year. Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran in Economic Survey 2025-26 says the record gold prices in 2025 were mainly due to the US government’s tariff announcements, global political uncertainty and the weakening of the US dollar, among other factors. The Economic Survey also revealed whether the gold price rally can be sustained in the future.
However, even as the Economic Survey revealed the reasons for the rise in gold prices in the last one year, the spot price of gold on India’s Multi Commodity Exchange fell by 4.87% from Rs 1,75,231 to Rs 1,67,095 on Friday (January 30, 2026). Some of the top gold exchange-traded funds, such as Axis Gold ETF, Union Gold ETF and 360 One Gold ETF fell at least 10% each.
Let’s look at the results of the Economic Survey related to the increase in gold prices and whether the rebound in the price of the yellow metal will continue over the next year.
Why did gold prices soar to record rates in 2025?
The Economic Survey says gold rose from $2,607 to $4,315 per ounce in 2025. As of January 26, 2026, the price of gold per ounce was $5,101.34. It says the record rally reflected a weakening US dollar, expectations of persistently negative real rates and the market’s growing assessment of geopolitical and financial risks.
If we look at the spot gold prices on the Indian Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the price of gold on January 30, 2025 was Rs 81,028, which increased to Rs 1,67,095 on January 29, 2026, generating a whopping 106.22% return for its investors in one year.
Naveen Mathur, Head of Commodity Foreign Exchange and GIFT IFSC, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers, says that for the full year 2025, the gold import bill remained slightly higher at around $59 billion compared to 2024, despite a more than 60% rise in prices, which was due to a decline in volumes of more than 20% in the same year (as per data available from the council gold world).
“Expectations for 2026 may still see imports increasing in terms of price, but the quantity in volume may still be moderately slower compared to 2025,” says Mathur.
MCX Gold Spot Price Return in 1 Year (Monthly Data)
| Date | Gold Price/10g (Rs) | Absolute profitability (%) |
| January 30, 2025 | 81028 | |
| February 28, 2025 | 84789 | 4.64 |
| March 31, 2025 | 88691 | 9.46 |
| April 30, 2025 | 93928 | 15.92 |
| May 30, 2025 | 95058 | 17.32 |
| June 30, 2025 | 95676 | 18.08 |
| July 30, 2025 | 98616 | 21.71 |
| August 29, 2025 | 100999 | 24.65 |
| September 30, 2025 | 114761 | 41.63 |
| October 30, 2025 | 119905 | 47.98 |
| November 28, 2025 | 126033 | 55.54 |
| December 30, 2025 | 133826 | 65.16 |
| January 30, 2025 | 167095 | 106.22 |
The tariff announcement influenced the rise in the price of gold
The Economic Survey further says that in the first half of calendar year (CY) 2025, global financial markets reacted to the US government’s tariff announcements. The survey states that global political uncertainty increased following the tariff announcements, prompting investors to reduce their exposure to the US dollar (USD) and seek safe-haven assets such as gold.
Emerging markets focus more on gold holdings
With the rise in gold prices, the Economic Survey notes that the proportion of gold in reserves is also increasing. The survey says it fits into a broader global pattern in which numerous emerging markets are increasing their gold holdings amid geopolitical uncertainty and changes in the global interest rate cycle.
“SDRs remained stable at $18.7 billion, while India’s reserve position in the IMF rose to $4.7 billion,” the survey reveals.
Gold components rise strongly
The Economic Survey says that foreign currency assets (FCA), which form the liquid core of reserves, fell slightly from $567.6 billion at the end of March 2025 to $560.5 billion as of January 16, 2026.
In contrast, the gold component rose sharply to $117.5 billion as of Jan. 16, 2026, up from $78.2 billion at the end of March 2025, according to the survey.
This increase reflects both valuation gains during a period of elevated global gold prices and a continued preference among central banks to diversify into non-dollar reserve assets, the survey says.
Impact of rising gold prices
Gold import bill rises The Economic Survey says that in FY25, India’s import composition continues to be dominated by crude oil, gold and petroleum products, with these sectors accounting for more than a third of total imports.
The survey says that gold imports increased by 27.4% (year-on-year), which can be attributed to an increase in gold prices, which increased by 38.2% (year-on-year) and driven by strong domestic consumption.
Increase in loans against gold
The Economic Survey says there was a substantial increase in loans for gold jewelry, which increased by 125.3 percent (year-on-year), possibly due to rising gold prices.
Will the rally in gold and silver prices continue?
The Economic Survey forecasts that prices of precious metals, both gold and silver, may continue to rise due to their sustained demand as safe haven investments amid global uncertainties, unless lasting peace is achieved and trade wars are resolved.
Some commentators believe that the breakneck pace set by gold and silver in 2025 may not be sustained, the Economic Survey says, adding that if they are right, underlying inflation, excluding precious metals, may be higher, not lower.
