Saturday Morning Report May 9
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I wish this were clear, but it isn’t. There will be a lot of changes this weekend and it looks like our computer model guide doesn’t provide much support. The maps below help detail its current appearance. But here are the points that I hope will help you plan and when to watch out.
- This morning: Rain will move over the mountains and spread primarily north of Baltimore. Some showers will reach metropolitan areas during the morning. Further south it remains dry!
- This afternoon: A series of storms will attempt to develop. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe storms between Baltimore and Philadelphia. Morning rain can stabilize the atmosphere and reduce the risk, but any spike in sunshine and rising temperatures will keep us in the bubble.
NOAA Severe Storm Outlook
Model comparison (see simulations below)
The NAM 3Km is more aggressive and there is more activity extending further into Maryland.
The HRRR model is less active due to more rain this morning, keeping the power in check.
- of the mother Day The overall look is nice, especially in the middle of the day. The morning may start with low clouds and fog, followed by sunshine. Showers could develop by mid-afternoon, and I may have been too optimistic earlier, as rain now looks likely to move into the Washington metropolitan area and central Maryland after 3 p.m.
- Monday: The rain will end early.
- Wednesday to Friday: A large, cool, unstable pattern is expected to bring rain.
Let’s take a look:
Live Radar Widget
My goal is to educate you so you can prepare
AND NEVER TO SCARE!
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Morning temperatures
Morning surface weather
Radar Simulation Comparisons: 8am to 8am
NAM 3Km Model
HRRR Model
Afternoon snapshots
NAM 3Km Model
HRRR Model
Afternoon temperatures
They are expected to peak around 3 pm before storms develop.
MOUNTAIN CAMERA: WESTERN MARYLAND
This webcam is located at The Greene Turtle Deep Creek Lake and shows Wisp Resort, including a zoomed-in view of Squirrel Cage, The Face, the terrain park, Boulder, the roller coaster, the tubing park, and a shot of McHenry Cove on Deep Creek Lake.
CLIMATE DATA: Baltimore
Yesterday: low 40°F; High 73°F
Precipitation: 0.00″
Snow depth: 0″
Season snow total: 17.6″
Maximum wind gust: 33 mph
TODAY May 9
Sunrise at 5:59 am
Sunset at 20:08
Normal low in Baltimore: 51ºF
Record low: 34ºF in 2020
Normal high in Baltimore: 74ºF
Record high: 93ºF in 1896/1963
Precipitation deficit in the ICM
- 2 previous years (2024 + 2025) = -16.91″
- 2026 to date = -5.60″
DROUGHT REPORT UPDATE
The year-to-date deficit fell further to -5.60”, with the accumulated deficit since 2024 now at -22.51”.
SUNDAY MOTHER’S DAY
Morning temperatures
morning clouds
Afternoon clouds
Afternoon temperatures
These can peak at 3 pm, just as clouds return with showers or thunderstorms in the surrounding area.
Radar simulation: noon to 8 p.m.
3 p.m. snapshot
Snapshot from 6 p.m.
Looking ahead: Monday to Friday
Monday’s early rain will disappear and Tuesday will be mostly sunny.
The next weather system appears to develop on Wednesday and persists with clouds and rain as a trough settles and stalls over the Mid-Atlantic.
Jet stream Monday through Friday
The depression settling over the Mid-Atlantic will be a pocket of cold, unstable weather that will maintain the risk of rain for a few days.
Friday Snapshot
7 day forecast
- Saturday: Rain in the north, afternoon storm? (40%). High 71ºF, Low —
- Mother’s Day Sunday: Afternoon showers — (30%). High 81ºF, Low 56ºF.
- Monday: AM Rain. High 65ºF, Low 50ºF.
- Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 63ºF, Low 44ºF.
- Wednesday: Rain (60%). High 68ºF, Low 52ºF.
- Thursday: Rains (50%). High 68ºF, Low 55ºF.
- Friday: Rains (50%). High 65ºF, Low 54ºF.
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STEM assemblies and school field trips are back
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THANK YOU:
Baltimore Sun Magazine Readers’ Choice Best of Baltimore
Maryland Trek 12 Day 7 completed Saturday August 9
UPDATED: We raised OVER $170,000 for Just In Power Kids – And we’re still raising more
The annual event: walk and bike 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp and Ocean City.
Every day, we honor the cancer journey of a child and their family.
Fundraiser is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I have never and will never accept a cent. It’s all to make our non-profit organization work.
Click here or on the image to donate:
REPEATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA
I am aware that there are some typos and grammatical errors and occasionally other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even computer failures that I may overlook. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here you may have missed them: I have dyslexia and I discovered it during my sophomore year at Cornell University. That didn’t stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to earn the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my teachers told me that I had come this far without knowing it and to not let it be a crutch to keep going. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes in my own review. My computer’s automatic spell checker sometimes does an injustice that makes it worse. I can also make mistakes when making forecasts. Nobody is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are accurate. Things with “words” in them can get sticky. There has been no editor who can review my work. while I write and have it ready to send in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken care to edit typos where available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps it will prove that what you read is really mine… It is part of my charm. #FITF
