The odds seemed to be firmly against the company. Rising oil prices, growing concerns about inflation and renewed expectations of higher interest rates amid the West Asian crisis coincided with the once-every-three-year Adhik Maas period, which typically dampens demand for wedding-related jewelry. At the same time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to curb gold purchases to help stop the free fall of the Indian rupee, while tariffs on gold were raised from 6% to 15%.
Despite these headwinds, Kalyan Jewelers has managed to change the narrative almost completely. Investors have responded quickly. The stock is up more than 35% in just three trading sessions. However, even after the strong rally, the stock will still fall around 3% in 2026 following the correction seen earlier this year.
Decoding Kalyan Jewelers share price rally
The company’s Q1 trading update indicated an estimated 38% year-on-year growth in consolidated revenue for Q1FY27. Kalyan Jewelers attributed the strong performance to healthy operating momentum and strong same-store sales growth in its key markets of India. This was achieved even though the entire Adhik Maas period of 28 days, which occurs once in three years and is generally considered inauspicious for weddings, falls during the just-concluded quarter.
Kalyan’s international prowess
The company’s international business recorded revenue growth of around 35% compared to the corresponding quarter last year. In the Middle East, revenue increased approximately 30% year-over-year, primarily driven by same-store sales growth despite lower customer footfall in April due to geopolitical tensions in the region.
International operations contributed around 14% to Kalyan Jewelers’ consolidated revenue during the quarter.
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Other revenue levers, store growth
Kalyan Jewelers’ digital jewelery platform Candere recorded revenue growth of approximately 112% over the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. During the quarter, the company opened 12 Kalyan showrooms across India, while Candere added five new stores.
The company said the current quarter has started on a positive note and remains optimistic about upcoming showroom launches, supported by new collections and marketing campaigns ahead of the festive and wedding season.
As on June 30, 2026, Kalyan Jewelers operated 524 showrooms across India and abroad. This included 354 Kalyan showrooms in India, 38 in the Middle East, two in the US, one in the UK and 129 Candere outlets.
Is it time to buy Kalyan stock or wait for it to go down?
Citi remains firmly bullish on the stock and believes it has the potential to double to Rs 750, double current levels. The brokerage expects Kalyan Jewelers’ franchise-based expansion strategy to continue supporting revenue growth. He also believes the company’s asset-light model will help deleverage and improve return on capital employed (ROCE).
ICICI Securities has maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 670, implying an upside of 80%. The brokerage said Kalyan Jewelers’ strong performance in Q1FY27 despite multiple headwinds reflects the resilient underlying demand for jewellery.
It believes the continued expansion of stores and the ongoing formalization of the jewelry industry reinforces its positive outlook, although it warned that any structural decline in natural diamond prices remains a key risk.
ICICI Securities reiterated its expectation for Kalyan Jewelers to maintain its growth momentum in FY27, modeling a standalone jewelery revenue CAGR of around 22%. The brokerage has marginally raised its FY27 and FY28 EPS estimates to factor in stronger-than-expected revenue growth in Q1 FY27 and now projects revenue, EBITDA and PAT CAGR of 19%, 16% and 24%, respectively, over FY26-28E. It has maintained its Buy rating with an unchanged DCF-based target price of Rs 670.
Technical signal strength
Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking, said KALYANKJIL is currently trading around Rs 446.70 and has seen a strong rally from its 200-week EMA, indicating strong buying interest emerging from long-term support levels.
He noted that the stock also managed a decisive breakout above its prolonged sideways consolidation on the weekly chart, indicating a possible trend reversal and improving the medium-term technical outlook.
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According to Tailor, the breakout has been accompanied by a significant increase in trading volumes, indicating strong market participation and lending credibility to the bullish movement. The stock has also reclaimed key moving averages, pointing to a strengthening of the price structure. Meanwhile, the RSI stands at 56.74 after recovering sharply from the oversold zone and breaking above the midpoint, indicating improving momentum and a positive change in sentiment.
He said that the Rs 435-400 zone is likely to act as immediate support, coinciding with the 20- and 50-week EMA cluster. As long as the stock remains above these levels, the medium-term trend is expected to remain positive, with the potential to move towards the Rs 500-525 zone. However, a decisive break below the Rs 435-420 support zone could trigger fresh profit booking and result in a fall towards the Rs 350-360 support region.
Shitij Gandhi, assistant vice president of equity technical research at SMC Global Securities, said Kalyan Jewelers is witnessing a strong recovery after a prolonged corrective phase, with the daily chart indicating the formation of a broad rectangular consolidation.
According to Gandhi, the stock has repeatedly found support around the Rs 330-335 zone, highlighting the sustained buying interest at lower levels. The subsequent bounce has pushed the stock above its short-term moving averages, indicating improving momentum.
He said immediate resistance is placed near Rs 445, which marks the upper limit of the consolidation range, while higher resistance levels are seen around Rs 505 and Rs 530. A decisive break above Rs 445 could confirm a new bullish leg and pave the way for a move towards these higher resistance levels.
What should be taken into account for the first quarter results?
Key risks include any delay in showroom expansion and increased competitive intensity in Kalyan Jewelers’ core South Indian markets.
Going forward, investors will closely monitor management commentary, demand during the upcoming holiday season, and the pace of the company’s expansion plans over the coming quarters.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. They do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
