Russia has for the first time publicly acknowledged a decline in its oil production this year, although it assured that the country is continuously expanding its “export infrastructure to its maximum capacity.”“Speaking to reporters at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said current output was lower than at the beginning of the year because many refineries were undergoing unscheduled repairs. His comments are the first explicit admission by a Russian official that the country’s oil production is set to fall in 2026.“Current production is actually somewhat lower than the beginning of the year,” Novak said.“This is due to the fact that many of our oil refineries are currently undergoing unscheduled maintenance.”Russia, the world’s third-largest oil producer, has not published official oil production data since April 2023, a little more than a year after the war with Ukraine began. Meanwhile, Russia’s crude exports through its western ports rose 15% in May from the previous month, according to two industry sources familiar with the data, as refinery disruptions prompted Moscow to send more crude to international markets. The increase comes amid a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks targeting Russian refineries and oil export facilities. The strikes have disrupted fuel supplies, strained refinery operations and increased pressure on the country’s oil industry. Russia’s oil production fell in April, according to the International Energy Agency, reflecting the growing impact of the attacks on the region.
Refineries are under pressure
Nowak did not say what caused the refinery maintenance. However, his comments came as Ukraine has stepped up long-range drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent months, targeting facilities linked to oil production and exports.On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian long-range drones attacked an oil terminal in St. Petersburg, causing a fire, while the city was hosting its annual international economic forum. According to Zelensky, the drone traveled more than 1,000 kilometers to reach the target.Russian officials confirmed that infrastructure in the city was targeted but did not provide additional details. The attack briefly disrupted operations in St. Petersburg, with authorities suspending flights overnight and cutting mobile internet services at the city’s airport.Ukraine has repeatedly targeted oil facilities in St. Petersburg and surrounding ports. Zelensky also said drone strikes overnight targeted the long-gone Kronstadt naval base of Russia’s Baltic Fleet and a manufacturing plant involved in weapons production in Russia’s Tambov region, about 600 kilometers from Ukraine.Ukraine says its long-range strikes are aimed at reducing Russia’s oil production and disrupting arms manufacturing, both of which are seen as vital to Moscow’s war effort.
Russia’s crude portfolio
While Russia has not released official production figures for more than three years, International Energy Agency figures point to a slowdown in output. Russia’s crude oil production in April fell by 460,000 barrels per day from a year earlier to about 8.8 million barrels per day, according to the agency.Russia’s oil and gas revenues, which contribute about a fifth of the country’s total budget income, rose 32.4% year-on-year in May to 678.9 billion rubles ($9.3 billion), according to Finance Ministry data released on Wednesday. The increase was driven by a rise in global oil prices amid the conflict in the Middle East.However, revenues were 20.7% lower than in April, when the budget included additional income from profit-based taxes paid on a cyclical basis.Novak said Russia was continuing to maximize exports despite refinery disruptions. “Naturally, we are using our export infrastructure to its maximum capacity. As soon as the refineries return to full operating mode, production will increase and return to their previous levels.”
Ukraine continues to attack Russian energy sites
Ukrainian long-range drones attacked an oil terminal in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, causing a fire and sending plumes of smoke across Russia’s second-largest city, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. The attack came as St. Petersburg is hosting its annual International Economic Forum, one of Russia’s major events aimed at attracting foreign investment.Zelensky said the drone traveled more than 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) to reach the target. The attack followed a major Russian drone and missile attack on Kiev and other Ukrainian cities a day earlier.In recent weeks, Kiev has stepped up its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, targeting facilities linked to oil production and exports as efforts to reach a peace deal in the war have failed to yield results.
- Yaroslavl Refinery (25 May): Ukrainian forces attacked the refinery, located about 700 km from the Ukrainian border. The facility has a processing capacity of 15 million metric tons per year or approximately 300,000 barrels per day (bpd).
- Syzran Refinery, Samara Region (21 May): Ukrainian drone attacks refinery owned by Rosneft. The attack damaged a primary processing unit, forcing a halt to operations. The refinery can process 8.5 million tonnes (170,000 bpd) annually.
- Tuapse Refinery, Black Sea Port (27 May): Ukraine said it followed an earlier drone strike on April 28 that hit the refinery, causing a major fire and suspending operations. The refinery has a capacity of 12 million tonnes per annum (240,000 bpd).
- NORSI Refinery, Nizhny Novgorod Region (20 May): Ukraine said it affected the refinery’s main processing unit. Russia’s fourth-largest refinery and second-largest gasoline producer, NORSI can process 16 million tonnes (320,000 bpd) annually.
- Moscow Refinery (17–19 May): The refinery in Moscow’s Kapotanya district reportedly stopped processing after the drone attack. The facility has an annual processing capacity of approximately 11 million tonnes of oil.
- Ryazan Refinery (19 May): Processing halted after Ukrainian drone attack. The refinery accounts for about 5% of Russia’s total refining volume and processed 13.1 million tonnes of crude in 2024.
- Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant (13 May): Drone debris caused a fire at the facility. The plant can process 12 billion cubic meters of gas and 3 million tonnes of stabilized gas condensate annually.
- Perm Refinery (7 May): The drone strike caused a fire and damaged equipment, halting processing. According to Reuters, the refinery is expected to process 12.6 million tonnes of oil in 2024, equivalent to about 250,000 bpd.
- Bashneft-Novoil Refinery of Ufa: Ukraine said it attacked the refinery, which is located 1,400 km from the border and is capable of processing more than 7 million tons of oil annually.
- Kirishi Refinery: Operations were halted following Ukrainian drone attacks on one of Russia’s major fuel producing facilities.
- Ust-Luga Processing Complex: The drone-related fire forced Novatek to suspend gas condensate processing and naphtha exports at the site, which processed 8 million tons of gas condensate in 2025.
Ukrainian drone strikes also set fire to the Temryuk port, Yaroslavl fuel storage facilities, the Primorsk oil export hub, a Transneft pumping station supplying Primorsk, a Samara oil dispatch facility and the Shakhris oil terminal on the Black Sea coast.
